As President Donald Trump continues to downplay the severity of the coronavirus pandemic, noted statistician Nate Silver is pointing out that how Trump and other Republicans are handling the crisis is actually making it worse in red states.
Trump wants to end social distancing policies and stay-at-home orders by Easter Sunday even though such measures are working to slow the spread of the virus where they have been enacted. His constant downplaying of the virus has even caused many Republican governors to not take it seriously at all.
For instance, Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves is barring communities from giving shutdown orders and instituting social distancing policies that restrict gatherings, preferring to rely on prayer instead of listening to scientists.
And Florida Governor Ron DeSantis refuses to close the state’s beaches, nor will he issue stay-at-home orders.
Of course, that means public health disasters are on the horizon for these states, both of which voted for Trump in 2016. And as Silver explained on Twitter, Trump states are already seeing more cases and faster spread of the virus than blue states.
Increase over yesterday in detected coronavirus cases. Hopefully, grouping things by region helps even out disparities in testing rates.
South: +32%
Northeast (excluding NY): +30%
Midwest: +27%
West (excluding CA & WA): +23%
New York: +20%
California: +20%
Washington: +11%— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 25, 2020
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These might not *seem* like big differences. But multiplied over days/weeks, they matter a lot:
30% = daily growth is quite bad; steepest part of exponential curve
20% = slope nudged downward but still exponential growth
10% = rather encouraging, may mean Ro<1 and spread slowing— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 25, 2020
Here’s another interesting comparison. Yesterday, detected cases increased by 31% in Trump states as compared to 21% in Clinton states. https://t.co/IwPxTfnoeB
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 26, 2020
He then mentioned Mississippi directly, and warned that the number of cases in red states could surpass the number in blue states by Easter Sunday, the day Trump wants to “reopen” the country and end the very policies that are recommended by health experts to fight the pandemic.
Mississippi hospitalizations for COVID-19 have tripled in the last three days. https://t.co/crzp9Jf7dQ https://t.co/q0OGwPl6Bg
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 26, 2020
If detected cases in each set of states continue to increase at their current rates, the number of cases in Trump states would surpass the number of cases in Clinton states on 4/11… the day before Easter.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 26, 2020
What’s even scarier is how many cases have gone undetected because of Trump’s poor response.
There is also likely significant underdetection in Trump states. In Trump states that report on hospitalizations, 20% of detected cases are resulting in hospitalizations, compared to 12% in Clinton states (10% without NY). That probably means a lot of mild cases are being missed.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 26, 2020
Make no mistake, Trump and Republicans are to blame for this acceleration in coronavirus cases in red states. They are the ones who refuse to take the pandemic seriously and are failing to enact policies to protect the public health. They are choosing the stock market and Trump’s re-election over American lives, and that is unforgivable. Sadly, people in these states won’t really understand what Trump and the GOP have done to them until the bodies start to pile up.
Featured image via screen capture
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