Yet another expert is weighing in on the raging war between Russia and Ukraine, and it’s serving as just more bad news for Vladimir Putin.
One military expert with ties to the French Ministry for the Armed Forces admits that Russian President Vladimir Putin may very well be successful in his efforts to take over the country of Ukraine. However, Putin has already lost the long-term war in this expert’s eyes, and what the dictator has done will likely leave him extremely vulnerable to a coup or revolution by his own people.
Jean-Baptiste Jeangene Vilmer, a director of the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM), penned a fiery essay for War on the Rocks, flagged by the Bulkwark’s Jonathan Last, and detailed his theory that Vladimir Putin made a grave strategic mistake when he invaded Ukraine and has already lost this war in some ways.
Vilmer writes, “No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his ‘friends.'”
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The military expert goes on to write that the entire world will likely suffer from this global event before it’s all said and done, but he notes five factors that do not bode well for Vladimir Putin in the end.
“It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall,” Vilmer writes before warning, “So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win.”
The military expert was sure to note that the possibility of Putin being overthrown by a military coup certainly is not out of the question as this event shakes out and the Russian people become more and more enraged over the Ukrainian invasion and Putin’s fellow oligarchs begin to take stock of the damage he has done.
“The logical conclusion of all this is that the resentment and hostility and fear that Putin generates within the Russian elite constitutes a real risk for his maintenance in power in the coming weeks, months, and years,” Vilmer explains. “The probability of a palace coup or an oligarchic revolt is substantial. There may come a point where it appears to the population and the economic, military, and security elite, including within the Kremlin, that the only way to save Russia is to get rid of Putin.”
You can read the expert’s full analysis here — a subscription is required.
Featured image via screen capture
