With 100 days to go before voters decide who controls Congress, one figure in the new polling carries more weight than the rest combined.
Civiqs’ rolling tracker, built on 118,886 registered voters, has Trump at 38% approval nationally against 57% disapproval, a net of -19. That puts him underwater in every battleground state that typically decides national elections. Arizona sits at -11. Georgia at -21. Nevada at -16. North Carolina at -13. Pennsylvania at -12. Wisconsin at -14. Florida and Ohio, states Trump carried comfortably in 2024, have both flipped negative, sitting at -9 and -8.
The number that actually predicts outcomes is buried in the demographic crosstabs, not the topline.
Independent approval sits at 32% in the Civiqs data, and separate tracking from USPollingData.com puts it closer to 34%, both comfortably below the 36% mark that preceded the 41-seat wave Democrats rode into a House majority in 2018. Every president who’s lost more than 20 House seats at midterm has done so with independent approval under 40% heading into the vote. Trump is currently well under that line with 100 days still to go.
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Even Trump’s strongest states are showing the erosion, not just the swing ones.
Wyoming remains his best state at +26, but that’s down from +47 when he took office, a 21-point drop in the single reddest state in the country. Idaho has slid from +34 to +14. West Virginia from +35 to +18. Kentucky opened at +23 and now sits at -1, crossing all the way into negative territory. The states bleeding the most support are consistently the ones that gave him his biggest cushions to begin with.
The history here isn’t kind to the White House’s case either.
NBC’s Steve Kornacki pointed out on Meet the Press that Trump’s current national average sits slightly below where he was polling at the same 100-day mark ahead of the 2018 midterms, the cycle that cost Republicans 41 seats in the House.
Nate Silver’s aggregator shows some recovery from a springtime low of 38%, but even that bounce leaves Trump in territory that has historically preceded significant losses for a president’s party.
The deep blue states haven’t shifted much, mostly because there wasn’t far left to fall.
Hawaii sits at -59, Vermont at -54, Maryland at -49, numbers that were already extreme at the start of the term and have simply held in place.
What’s more revealing is the cluster of states sitting near zero. Indiana at +5. Utah at +6. Kansas at +7. Nebraska at -1. Louisiana at -3. South Carolina at -4. From a distance, the map looks familiar. Up close, it’s a list of states one bad news cycle away from flipping.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
