According to new polling from a former Trump campaign insider, Democrats could be heading into the 2026 midterms with a significant edge over Republicans.
A memo from FabrizioWard, the firm led by Tony Fabrizio, former chief pollster for Donald Trump, shows Democrats leading the GOP by seven points on a national congressional ballot. The survey, conducted with 1,000 registered voters, suggests the party could maintain momentum heading into the next election cycle.
This finding isn’t isolated. Other recent polling also points to a Democratic advantage.
Race to the WH, which aggregates mainstream poll results, puts Democrats ahead by 4.8%, while RealClearPolitics shows a 3.7% lead. These numbers indicate that the party is holding a consistent, albeit moderate, advantage over Republicans.
Stay up-to-date with the latest news!
Subscribe and start recieving our daily emails.
But what’s driving this trend?
A key factor appears to be growing dissatisfaction with Donald Trump himself. In the latest Quinnipiac University poll, 54% of Americans say they feel Trump has exceeded his authority. The president’s unilateral actions over the past year, including sweeping tariffs and deploying troops in U.S. cities, have raised concern even among some loyal supporters.
Even more striking, Trump’s approval among Republicans is eroding. NBC News Decision Desk analysis finds that both mainstream GOP members and self-identified MAGA voters are 6% more likely to feel the country is headed in the wrong direction than they did just a few months ago.
Economic issues are also weighing heavily.
According to a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist survey, 57% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. With Obamacare subsidies expiring and no replacement plan in place for lower-income Americans, voters are increasingly concerned about affordability, a potential defining issue for 2026.
Adding to the party’s woes, Trump’s management of the Epstein files has drawn sharp criticism.
Only 26% of respondents in a Quinnipiac poll approved of how the administration handled the matter. This reflects broader fractures within the Republican ranks, where figures like Reps. Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene have openly criticized the delay in releasing the files.
In response, the GOP is exploring multiple strategies to counter these trends. From pushing mid-decade redistricting to improve congressional odds, to highlighting Trump’s presence in local races, the party is working to energize its base.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles told The Mom VIEW web show: “We’re actually going to turn that on its head and put him on the ballot because so many of those low propensity voters are Trump voters.”
Traditionally, midterms focus on local candidates, not the president. But the GOP’s strategy flips that approach, hoping to leverage Trump’s loyal supporters to boost turnout.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
