Donald Trump recently made headlines with a social media post directed at women, claiming he could make them “happy” if they just voted for him in the upcoming presidential election. He posted, “You’re broke and depressed, but I can make you happy,” suggesting that his policies and leadership would somehow alleviate their financial and emotional struggles. His remarks were seen as condescending and out of touch, especially considering his track record with women voters and policies impacting them.
Grandpa writes in all caps:
“WOMEN ARE POORER THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO, ARE LESS HEALTHY THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO, ARE LESS SAFE ON THE STREETS THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO, ARE MORE DEPRESSED AND UNHAPPY THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO, AND ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC AND CONFIDENT IN THE FUTURE THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO. I WILL FIX ALL OF THAT AND FAST AND AT LONG LAST, THIS NATIONAL NIGHTMARE WILL BE OVER. WOMEN WILL BE HAPPY, HEALTHY, CONFIDENT AND FREE. YOU WILL NO LONGER BE THINKING ABOUT ABORTION, BECAUSE IT IS NOW WHERE IT ALWAYS HAD TO BE WITH THE STATES AND A VOTE OF THE PEOPLE.”
(source)
Trump’s Favorability Among Women
Polling data shows that Trump struggles with female voters across various demographics. According to a recent AARP poll, Kamala Harris, the current Democratic candidate, is performing significantly better among women. Women tend to be more supportive of Harris, with 54% of older women favoring her compared to 42% for Trump. In that same poll – among all voters aged 18 and older, Harris has a slight lead over Trump, with 49% compared to his 46%.
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Pew conducted a poll that found:
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In July, women’s presidential preferences were split: 40% backed Biden, 40% preferred Trump and 17% favored Kennedy. With Harris at the top of the ticket, 49% of women voters now support her, while 42% favor Trump and 7% back Kennedy.
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Among men, Trump draws a similar level of support as he did in the race against Biden (49% today, compared with 48% in July). But the share of men who now say they support Harris has grown (to 44% today, up from 38% last month). As a result, Trump’s 10-point lead among men has narrowed to a 5-point lead today.
This trend indicates a potential shift in support towards the Democratic candidate, largely due to concerns over economic stability and retirement security, issues where Harris is seen as more trustworthy.
If we were to imagine a scenario where only women could vote in the 2024 election, Trump’s prospects would be grim. With Harris holding a strong lead among women voters, especially those over 50, the electoral map would look drastically different. In key battleground states like Michigan, where abortion rights and economic issues dominate voter concerns, women have shown a clear preference for Democratic candidates, making it highly likely that Harris would secure a decisive victory.
KFF did an amazing survey of women HERE (before Harris was the nominee):
What Would Happen If Only Women Could Vote?
To analyze the potential outcome of a female-only electorate, let’s consider the voting patterns seen in recent polls. Women have consistently leaned towards Democratic candidates, particularly on issues such as healthcare, economic security, and reproductive rights. If only women were allowed to vote, Trump would lose significant ground in crucial swing states like Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This shift could turn the electoral map overwhelmingly blue, as these states often decide the outcome of the presidential election.
In 2020, women voted for Joe Biden over Trump by a margin of 57% to 42%. With Harris now on the ticket, this margin could widen further. Assuming similar turnout rates and voting patterns, if only women voted, Harris would likely secure a landslide victory, flipping traditionally red states like Texas and Florida. This is because women, particularly younger and older demographics, are more motivated by issues that Harris champions, such as healthcare reform, economic stability, and protecting Social Security.
Analyzing Trump’s Policies Impacting Women
Trump’s policies have had a mixed impact on women. His administration faced heavy criticism for rolling back protections related to reproductive rights and healthcare access. For instance, the 2017 decision to end funding for the United Nations Population Fund, which supported family planning and reproductive health services worldwide, was seen as a setback for women’s rights globally. Additionally, his administration’s attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) were viewed as a threat to women’s healthcare, as the ACA provided critical protections for women, including coverage for maternity care and preventive services.
On the economic front, Trump’s tax cuts were argued to benefit higher-income individuals and corporations more than the average American family, where women often shoulder the economic burden. His administration’s focus on deregulation was also seen as harmful to workplace protections that benefit women, particularly in low-income jobs. However, supporters of Trump argue that his economic policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, contributed to a pre-pandemic economy with low unemployment rates and increased job opportunities for all Americans, including women.
The Impact of Trump’s Rhetoric on Women Voters
Beyond policy, Trump’s rhetoric has often been seen as dismissive or derogatory towards women. His infamous comments about women, as well as his handling of sexual assault allegations, have alienated many female voters. In contrast, Harris’s campaign has focused on issues like economic equality, reproductive rights, and healthcare access, resonating with a broader base of female voters.
The disparity between Trump and Harris’s appeal to women is stark. While Trump’s base may remain loyal, his comments and policies have done little to broaden his appeal among women voters. Harris, on the other hand, has capitalized on this weakness, emphasizing policies and rhetoric that speak directly to the concerns of women across the country.
In a hypothetical scenario where only women voted, it is highly likely that Trump would face a resounding defeat. The combination of his policy decisions, rhetoric, and current polling data indicates that women voters are more inclined to support Harris, especially on issues that matter most to them, such as healthcare, economic stability, and reproductive rights. This trend could lead to a landslide victory for Harris, highlighting the critical role women voters will play in the 2024 election.
Featured image via Political Tribune gallery
