Gavin Newsom is acting less like a California governor and more like a man testing out the presidency. He’s raising money. He’s visiting battleground states. He’s mocking Donald Trump online. And now, he’s topping the Democratic pack for 2028.
A new YouGov poll shows Newsom in first place among Democratic voters and Democratic leaners. He has support from 21%. That puts him just ahead of former vice President Kamala Harris at 19%. Far behind are Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, Pete Buttigieg at 10%, JB Pritzker at 7%, Tim Walz at 4%, Josh Shapiro at 4%, and Gretchen Whitmer at 2%.
For Newsom, it’s a huge jump. In April, an Economist/YouGov poll found him at only 8%. Back then, Harris was far ahead at 29%. Now the race looks different.
The YouGov poll, taken Aug. 29–Sept. 2, surveyed 1,690 U.S. adults. The margin of error is 3.1%.
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The poll also asked voters about a general election. If the 2028 race were “held today,” Newsom would beat both Trump and Vice President JD Vance. He leads Trump 49% to 41%. Against Vance, he leads by the same margin, 49% to 41%.
Trump cannot legally run for a third term. But the matchup still matters. It shows how voters see Newsom stacked up against Trump’s brand.
Newsom is framing himself as the man who will “play hardball” against Republicans. He recently pushed California Democrats to redraw districts early — a mirror move to what Trump allies are doing in Texas. “It’s not about whether we play hardball anymore,” Newsom said. “It’s about how we play hardball.”
That line sums up his new style. For years, Democrats accused Trump of gaming the system. Now, Newsom is saying Democrats should game it too.
The public isn’t thrilled with redistricting. Only 11% of Americans like it. 58% oppose it. But in this case, Newsom polls better than Trump. Just 25% of Americans approve of Trump’s push in Texas. 49% disapprove. Newsom’s California plan splits voters more evenly: 33% approve, 39% disapprove.
The partisan split explains the gap. Democrats hate Trump’s Texas plan by 80%. Republicans dislike Newsom’s California plan by 56%. Democratic support for Newsom is higher (62%) than Republican support for Trump (56%). That gives Newsom the edge.
Still, the numbers show warning signs. Only 32% of Americans see Newsom as a “strong leader.” For Trump, it’s 44%. Younger Democrats don’t love Newsom either. Among those under 45, Harris leads with 27% and Ocasio-Cortez with 22%. Newsom trails at 13%. His strength is with Democrats over 45, where he leads Harris 26% to 13%.
Even his social media strategy is dividing people. Just 33% approve of Newsom mocking Trump online. 43% disapprove. Yet Trump’s own online presence is even less popular — only 29% approve, while 52% disapprove.
Newsom is leaning into the fight anyway. He’s hosting national political figures on his podcast. He’s traveling outside California. He’s turning attacks into headlines. And he’s getting noticed.
For now, the poll shows a governor on the rise. Newsom insists he isn’t running. But the numbers — and the noise — suggest otherwise.
And the parody “Governor Newsom Press Office” account is already writing the script. One viral post hit with the Trump-like swagger Newsom is imitating:
“GUESS WHO BEAT DONALD? ME! YOUR UNDEFEATED GOVERNOR. THE PEOPLE ALL LOVE ME! SOME SAY NO ONE HAS EVER LOVED THE WAY THEY LOVE ME. I’M SMART, HANDSOME, AND CAN WALK WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE GROUND. (SAD!) PACK UP YOUR TEETH AND METAMUCIL, LOSER. WE’RE SENDING YOU BACK TO DUMBODIA.”
GUESS WHO BEAT DONALD? ME! YOUR UNDEFEATED GOVERNOR. THE PEOPLE ALL LOVE ME! SOME SAY NO ONE HAS EVER LOVED THE WAY THEY LOVE ME. I’M SMART, HANDSOME, AND CAN WALK WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE GROUND. (SAD!) PACK UP YOUR TEETH AND METAMUCIL, LOSER. WE’RE SENDING YOU BACK TO DUMBODIA. pic.twitter.com/azdBrwgakR
— Governor Newsom Press Office (parody) (@AwesomeNewsom) September 5, 2025
If politics is performance, Newsom is finding his stage. The question now is whether Democrats — and the country — will buy a ticket.
Featured image via Youtube screengrab
