In the unpredictable arena of U.S. politics, polls often act as a critical barometer of a candidate’s prospects. When a Republican-leaning pollster indicates that Donald Trump is leading in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against Kamala Harris, it might initially appear as good news for the former president. However, a deeper analysis of these numbers, especially when examined alongside other data, reveals a much more precarious situation for Trump than his supporters might hope.
The Polling Landscape: A Closer Look
A recent Rasmussen Reports poll, typically viewed as leaning toward Republican candidates, showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead over Donald Trump. This finding is particularly significant given Rasmussen’s history of favoring conservative candidates. If a pollster like Rasmussen is showing Harris ahead, even by a slim margin, it’s a red flag for Trump’s 2024 aspirations.
A sign of the apocalypse
A Rasmussen poll with Harris leading +1 https://t.co/pgfCJa2djE
— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) September 3, 2024
According to the Rasmussen poll conducted in late August, Harris leads Trump by 1 percentage point in a head-to-head matchup. This might seem like a negligible difference, but when considering Rasmussen’s track record, it signals that Trump’s support may be more fragile than it appears. Historically, Rasmussen has been one of the more favorable pollsters for Trump, often giving him an edge that other pollsters do not. The fact that Harris is even slightly ahead in this context suggests that Trump’s base might not be as solid as it once was.
Stay up-to-date with the latest news!
Subscribe and start recieving our daily emails.
Previous Polling
We’ve shared previous polling before, and if it keeps going this way – Donald Trump is really in trouble. But Democrat aides have warned against irrational exuberance; nothing matters until the votes come in. Most polls are within the margin of error and there is a lot that can happen between today and the election. Having said that …
We wrote this in August 2024:
A recent poll conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School reveals troubling signs for former President Donald Trump as he faces off against Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 election. While Trump still leads Harris by 4.9 points (49.5% to 44.6%) among likely voters in Texas, a deeper dive into the data suggests that the GOP’s once solid dominance in Texas may be slipping.
Harris’s rise in support since June is notable. Her vote intention increased by over 4%, narrowing the gap with Trump. This upward trajectory seems to have been bolstered by her strong performance with female voters, where she now leads by six points—a stark contrast to Trump’s narrow edge among women in previous polls. Trump maintains a significant lead among men (56% to 38%), but the gender gap has clearly shifted in Harris’s favor.
This was August 31, 2024:
Polls are showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading over Donald Trump in key battleground states. It isn’t a huge lead, but as you might guess, former President Donald Trump is having conniptions. He has to have at least one conniption daily so that he makes sure that his cronies, campaign staff, and gullible supporters are paying attention to him every second of every single day.
But it’s not a proper conniption unless he posts it on Truth Social, where he moans, growls, and rants 365 days a year. This time he fumed that the recent polls were “rigged and worthless.” The polls in question were conducted between August 23 and 26, showing Harris beating Trump by one point in Arizona and by two points in Nevada and Georgia. In North Carolina, she was down by just one point, a state that Trump won in 2016 and 2020.
We wrote this August 29, 2024:
The Fox News poll released today focuses on the critical Sun Belt states, which have historically leaned Republican or been fiercely contested. The poll shows Harris making significant strides against Trump in states like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada—states that are vital to Trump’s path to victory. According to the data, Harris is within striking distance of Trump, with margins in the low single digits, while Trump’s numbers remain stagnant or slightly declining compared to previous cycles .
Why This Matters
To understand why this is significant, it’s important to consider the broader context of polling data and what it represents. Polls are not just snapshots of current voter preferences; they also serve as indicators of momentum and enthusiasm. A Republican pollster showing Trump trailing, or only narrowly leading, hints at deeper vulnerabilities within his campaign.
For instance, the same Rasmussen poll highlighted that Harris is gaining ground with critical voter demographics. Suburban women, a key swing group, have shown increased support for Harris, reflecting a trend that began in the 2020 election when Trump struggled to win over these voters. Similarly, younger voters and minority groups are breaking for Harris in higher numbers than they are for Trump. These groups are essential for any candidate hoping to secure a win in a general election, and their shift toward Harris should be alarming for the Trump campaign.
Newsweek explains how Rasmussen is trash here:
Rasmussen Reports has previously been accused of being unreliable due to apparent bias as their results are thought to lean toward Republican candidates. In March 2024, polling and forecasting website 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, dropped Rasmussen Reports from its list of usable polling companies for failing to meet its standards.
Former pollster Adam Carlson warned about looking into the Rasmussen Reports results too much.
“By the way they are still not a real pollster, they could show Harris up by 6 points tomorrow and 9 points the day after that, all of their results belong not just in the garbage, but directly to the incinerator,” Carlson posted.
The Broader Implications for Trump
When analyzing why a traditionally conservative poll might show Harris leading, it’s crucial to factor in the broader political climate. Trump’s legal troubles, including multiple indictments and ongoing investigations, have dominated headlines and could be contributing to voter fatigue. Even among his base, there is a growing concern about his electability, particularly when faced with a general electorate that is increasingly diverse and less aligned with Trump’s core messaging.
Moreover, the Rasmussen poll isn’t an outlier in showing Harris’s strength. Other recent polls, including those cited by Polinews.org, have consistently shown that Harris is closing the gap with Trump, particularly in battleground states. In these key areas, where elections are won and lost, Harris is either leading or within striking distance, further complicating Trump’s path to a potential victory.
What Does This Mean for 2024?
For Trump, the implications of these polling numbers are profound. If he is struggling to maintain a solid lead in polls conducted by favorable outlets like Rasmussen, it suggests that his campaign might face even more significant challenges as the election draws closer. Polls are not the only indicator of a campaign’s health, but they are a crucial one, especially when they consistently show a pattern of declining support or narrowing margins.
For Harris, the numbers indicate a growing momentum that could be pivotal in a general election. While she has faced her own set of challenges and criticisms, her ability to stay competitive in polls—even against a figure as polarizing as Trump—suggests that she is in a strong position heading into 2024. If current trends continue, Harris could become a formidable opponent for Trump, particularly if she continues to consolidate support among key voter blocs.
In the world of politics, nothing is certain, but one thing is clear: when a Republican pollster like Rasmussen shows Trump either trailing or narrowly leading against Harris, it’s a signal that his campaign might be in deeper trouble than it appears. For Trump supporters, these numbers should prompt serious reflection, while for Harris and her team, the growing momentum offers a promising outlook as the 2024 election approaches.
Featured image via Political Tribune gallery
