The Republican Party has spent the last year telling the world it stands behind Donald Trump. Behind closed doors, the story is shifting.
Salon analyst Brian Karem wrote Friday that most congressional Republicans are privately done with the president, even if very few are willing to say so publicly.
The piece points to Speaker Mike Johnson as the most telling example, a man who has performed loyalty under extraordinary pressure but is now showing visible signs of strain.
Johnson has held his caucus together through budget fights, impeachment threats, and a series of Trump decisions that would have fractured almost any other coalition. But cracks are appearing. Earlier this year he broke with Trump over the president’s push to prosecute Democratic members of Congress for urging military personnel to refuse illegal orders. “Should they be sent to jail? Probably not,” Johnson said, a quiet but notable public split from a man who rarely splits.
Mike Johnson: “A line is crossed and it’s very serious when you have leaders here in the Senate and House effectively telling members of the military to defy orders. It’s a very dangerous gambit they were playing. Should they be sent to jail? Probably not.” pic.twitter.com/dRwIfwor0N
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 11, 2026
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Then came Tuesday. Trump stood next to Johnson at a public event and announced that a GOP member of Congress was terminally ill and would probably be dead before June. Johnson had to clean up the moment in real time. All he could offer was that Trump had said “the quiet part out loud.” It was not a defense. It was barely an explanation.
Karem put it plainly. “Behind closed doors, most Republicans are done with the Donald,” he wrote. “A few, like Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, are already speaking out. The question is now with the Republican leadership. How much longer will Johnson bend his knee?”
Massie has been the outlier, the Republican willing to say publicly what others whisper privately. But the whispers are getting louder and reaching closer to the center of power.
What may ultimately force the shift is not principle but arithmetic. Republican insiders told Karem that most congressional Republicans believe the turning point will come if they lose the House and Senate in the midterms. A White House source was more direct. “It’s over one way or another after that,” the source said.
That is not the kind of thing people say when they believe the ship is steady.
The midterm picture is already looking difficult. Democratic turnout has surged in every competitive primary state so far this cycle. Trump’s approval rating is at historic lows. The Iran war has fractured his base, driven away independents, and given Republican candidates in competitive districts very little to campaign on. Running on a war that 59% of Americans think was a mistake is not a winning platform.
Johnson has held the line longer than almost anyone expected. But holding the line and believing in what you are holding are different things. The analyst community in Washington is now openly asking how far Trump has to go before Johnson decides the line is no longer worth holding.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
