Republicans are no longer keeping their anxieties private. Recent polling suggests the problem extends far beyond Donald Trump and could destabilize the party’s prospects in the 2026 midterms.
Rick Wilson, once a Republican strategist and now a co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, delivered a stark verdict. “Catastrophic. 2026 is teeing up to be a bloodbath,” Wilson wrote.
The warning comes as Trump’s approval ratings continue to slide, even among voters Republicans cannot afford to lose. According to the New York Times Siena Poll released January 17, 56% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Only a minority approve.
Wilson says that number alone should terrify GOP candidates.
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“Apropos of the 2026 elections, Trump is increasingly a boat anchor around the necks of Republican candidates,” he wrote. “I’ve been a professional consumer of polling for three decades, and the absolute crashout of Trump’s polling is like nothing I’ve ever seen.”
That kind of language is rare from someone who once helped elect Republicans. But Wilson argues the trend is unmistakable. Voters are not just unhappy. They are exhausted. The problem for Republicans is that Trump is no longer just the face of the party. He is the brand. And right now, that brand is toxic in swing districts.
Polling shows Trump underwater on nearly every major issue. Inflation. Health care. Immigration. Even areas he once dominated now produce mixed or negative reactions. Independent voters are breaking sharply away. Younger voters are souring fast.
Instead of recalibrating, Trump has lashed out.
After several surveys showed his approval sliding, he publicly accused pollsters of corruption and suggested they should face criminal consequences. That response may fire up his base, but it does nothing for candidates trying to survive competitive races.
As Wilson put it, “Voters hate Trump and his MAGA coalition is falling apart.”
That collapse is already shaping campaign strategy behind the scenes. Some Republican candidates are attempting distance without defiance. Others are doubling down, hoping turnout alone will save them. Both paths carry risk.
Midterms are usually a referendum on the sitting president. This time, Republicans fear the verdict may be brutal.
What makes the moment worse is the lack of a clear off ramp. Trump dominates the party apparatus. He controls the narrative. Any criticism is framed as betrayal. That leaves little room for correction.
Featured image via YouTube screengrab
