CNN Numbers Analyst Reveals Democrats Gaining Serious Midterm Momentum

Texas is rewriting the midterm game, and Democrats are all smiles.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten explained why this shift has Republicans on edge, and why Texas is a major piece of the puzzle. He first highlighted Democratic strength in blue states, showing how it alone could reshape the House.

“Democratic majorities are built on states like New York, eliminating the few Republicans that actually represented in the House,” Enten said.

But the spotlight quickly moved south.

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Anchor Kate Bolduan noted that Texas has become central thanks to redistricting battles and recent elections.

“Let’s talk about Texas, which has been such a central focus when you look at redistricting efforts, and just a lot that has been going on there, especially in just the last couple weeks,” Bolduan said.

Enten spelled out the warning signs for the GOP.

“Yeah, there’s been a lot going on. You know, we mentioned, of course, that Texas ninth special election that happened on Saturday, right? That did not happen in isolation. That did not happen in isolation,” he said.

He added that Republicans had hoped redistricting would give them an edge, but the numbers are slipping fast.

“Republicans have been hoping to squeeze out more Republican seats from that state with the redistricting efforts, right? These are the types of numbers that should really worry Republicans,” Enten said.

Then he laid out the numbers.

“Okay, Republicans’ margins in Texas: [Donald] Trump won it by 14 points. But look at the generic ballot, the generic House ballot. Now we’re talking about a Republican advantage of just one, two points,” Enten said.

The environment, he said, is shifting quickly.

“Yeah, they got a good candidate, but it was also the environment has shifted so much to the left, right? This looks a whole heck of a lot like what we saw in 2018 when Republicans barely won that House vote,” he added.

Enten pointed out that when Texas is added to Democratic gains elsewhere, the math becomes alarming for Republicans.

“You put this, together with this, together with this, and all of a sudden you can see how Democrats can really get-, wring out a lot of seats from the big states, the blue ones in California and New York, and of course the red one, historically, in the state of Texas,” he said.

Bolduan then asked about prediction markets.

“So just take a look here. The chance of a blowout, this is the chance that the GOP wins under 193 House seats. Three months ago, it was just 8%. Look at where we are today, up to 26% chance,” Enten said.