In 2024, Trump won Iowa by 13 points. On Thursday, it became a toss-up. Thirteen points, apparently, do not go as far as they used to.
That shift set the tone for what followed, as “the battle for Iowa’s governorship is officially a barnburner,” according to Cook Political Report, which cited internal polling showing Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand ahead of his expected Republican opponent. Iowa has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006. That streak is now in genuine danger.
At the center of that shift is Sand himself. He sits on $13.2 million in cash compared to Republican frontrunner Randy Feenstra’s $3.2 million, has visited all 99 counties, appeared on conservative media, and even collected petition signatures from registered Republicans, running with momentum on his side.
And right now, the momentum is doing most of the work. Trump’s tariffs have hit Iowa’s corn and soybean exports, while outgoing Republican Governor Kim Reynolds carries an approval rating that has been underwater for more than a year, partly tied to a school voucher push that has created budget strain in multiple major districts.
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Unsurprisingly, Iowa Republicans are not buying the narrative. GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann dismissed the Cook analysis as “lazy” and “naïve,” pointing to the party’s 200,000-voter registration advantage, while Feenstra insisted Iowa would “never become California, Illinois, or Minnesota,” the usual lineup of political warning labels.
Still, Iowa is not shifting in isolation. A CNN poll shows Trump’s net approval among independents at minus 45, worse than any president in recorded history, including Nixon, while Democratic and liberal candidates have recently overperformed or won races across Wisconsin, Georgia, Missouri, and Oklahoma.
That broader trend is already showing up in places that once looked locked down. In December, Eileen Higgins became the first Democrat to win a Miami mayoral race since 1997, Boca Raton elected its first Democratic mayor since 1993, and a Florida State House seat that includes Mar-a-Lago flipped to a Democrat.
Looking ahead, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket now give Democrats an 87% chance of retaking the House in November, while Polymarket puts their Senate chances at 53%, up sharply from 17% before the Iran war pushed gas prices past $4 a gallon.
Iowa’s Senate map is now part of that same reshuffle, with Senator Joni Ernst not seeking re-election and Democrats needing a net gain of 4 seats to flip the chamber, pulling the state into play on two fronts at once.
Cook concluded that “everything that could go right for Democrats here has so far, giving the party a very real shot at winning the governorship for the first time since 2006.”
Featured image via YouTube screengrab
