Midterm elections and special elections tend to favor the party not currently in the White House. But that’s been an even larger trend since Donald Trump returned to office in early 2025.
Newsweek this week featured a list of all the seats flipped by Democrats since the start of 2025.
“Democrats have flipped 28 GOP-leaning state legislative seats, including districts in New Hampshire, Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Virginia, and New Jersey,” the report said of the election trend, ahead of the main midterms in December.
The DLCC argues that special elections underscore momentum heading into competitive states. https://t.co/DoFN3MPscH
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) March 12, 2026
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Per the report, Democrats so far in 2026 have three state legislative seats, one each in Texas, New Hampshire, and Arkansas. In 2025, Democrats flipped state legislative seats in special elections, including three in Mississippi, two in Iowa, and one each in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Most recently, Democrat Bobbi Boudman won a special election in New Hampshire to flip a seat there.
In Virginia and New Jersey’s elections, which take place in odd-numbered years, Democrats flipped 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates and five in the New Jersey General Assembly.
Newsweek has also published a map of the flipped seats.
“Expect intense spending in battleground legislatures, including Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and competitive districts in large states like Texas, as both parties try to shape the 2026 midterms and the 2030 redistricting cycle,” the report said. “Control of state legislatures affects abortion, gun laws, voting access, and redistricting, shaping policy ahead of the 2026 midterms.”
Morning Consult poll | 3/6-3/8 RV
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 53% (-1)
✅Approve 44% (no change)
(Change from last week)
—
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 47%
🟥Republican 43%Link to poll: https://t.co/rNY6LYsOSv pic.twitter.com/rEE25hc6Wc
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) March 12, 2026
So what will happen in November when, in addition to state legislatures, the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be up for re-election?
According to the RealClearPolling average, Democrats enjoy an across-the-board lead in the generic ballot for Congress. The average has the Democrats with 47.8 percent, compared to Republicans with 43.1 percent.
