While welcoming news for Democrats, a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows Republicans have major warning signs heading into next year’s midterms.
The poll found that if elections were held today, 55% of registered voters would choose a Democratic candidate for Congress, compared with 41% for Republicans, a 14-point lead. This is the largest advantage Democrats have had since November 2017, a year before they gained over 40 House seats during Trump’s first term.
Independent voters were even more decisive, choosing Democrats over Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said this reflects a common trend: voters often favor “the other guy” during midterms, giving the party out of power a chance to govern.
Recent Democratic wins in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia also energized their base and may have dampened Republican enthusiasm, said Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report.
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She pointed to Trump’s falling popularity and economic frustrations as key reasons independents are turning away from the GOP.
The winning Democratic campaigns focused on affordability, highlighting the rising cost of living in their areas. Since the elections, the Trump administration tried to respond by lowering tariffs on foods like beef, coffee, and other groceries. But many voters were not convinced.
Trump said, “The Biden administration started the affordability crisis, and my administration is ending it,” yet 57% of people still say lowering prices should be the White House’s top priority. Immigration, which Trump focuses on, is far less important to voters, trailing by 41 points.
Trump’s approval rating is suffering as a result. Only 39% approve of the job he is doing, while 56% disapprove, including 48% who strongly disapprove. This marks the lowest approval of his second term so far and echoes the declining support during the final weeks of his first term, after the Capitol attack.
Miringoff noted that Trump has lost key voter groups he had gained in 2024, including young voters and independents, who are now returning to previous patterns.
The poll also captured the public’s reaction to the 43-day government shutdown. 6 in 10 Americans blame Trump or congressional Republicans, while 39% blame Democrats. Confidence in government remains low across the board: 61% distrust the presidency, 62% the Supreme Court, and 75% the media. Both major parties face low trust, 65% lack confidence in Republicans, and 71% in Democrats.
Despite widespread frustration with Democrats, voters still prefer a Democratic Congress. Walter explained this reflects an anti-incumbent sentiment: voters are frustrated with those currently in power, regardless of party.
Political polarization is also clear. 65% of Democrats say Republicans are dishonest, and 85% say they are closed-minded. Meanwhile, 72% of Republicans call Democrats dishonest, and 82% say they are closed-minded.
Featured image via YouTube screengrab
