DISCLAIMER: This article was first published on September 2, 2024
A brief yet poignant moment at Kyle Field during a Texas A&M football game has captured the attention of social media and ignited political discussions across the state. In a viral video lasting just seven seconds, a woman sporting Texas A&M gear on the sidelines was seen reacting to the appearance of Senator Ted Cruz with visible disdain. As Cruz walked by, the camera cut to the woman, who immediately mimicked vomiting, a clear indication of her dislike for the senator. The video spread rapidly across platforms, symbolizing a deeper frustration with Cruz among segments of his constituency.
This one moment of public expression is not just a viral social media clip, but a symbol of a broader narrative surrounding Ted Cruz’s declining popularity in Texas, especially in urban areas. While Cruz has held onto power through the support of rural voters, his reputation in major Texas cities is increasingly tarnished. To fully understand this political sentiment, it’s necessary to dig into Cruz’s past electoral performance and the dynamics shaping the Texas political landscape.
Interestingly, Texas A&M University—where the incident took place—has deep roots in agriculture, reflected in its nickname, the Aggies. Founded in 1876 as the Agricultural and Mechanical College of Texas, the university was originally focused on farming and technical education, aligning closely with rural communities throughout the state. Even today, Texas A&M is recognized for its agricultural programs and advanced farm technology. Given this heritage, it’s notable that a person likely from a rural background, such as the woman in the video, would express such strong disapproval of Cruz, whose political support is heavily reliant on rural voters. This juxtaposition underscores the complexity of Cruz’s standing within Texas, where even those from traditionally supportive regions are beginning to voice their dissatisfaction
Cruz’s Troubled Popularity in Texas
Ted Cruz’s 2018 re-election race against Democrat Beto O’Rourke stands as a key moment in recent Texas political history. While Cruz ultimately won the Senate race, the narrow margin of victory—50.9% to O’Rourke’s 48.3%—was a significant departure from previous Republican dominance in the state. Cruz’s once-strong conservative base had begun to fracture, especially in urban areas where Democrats had made significant inroads. His decision to vacation in Cancun during the 2021 winter storm, which left millions of Texans without power and water, only exacerbated his unpopularity. The incident became emblematic of Cruz’s detachment from the everyday struggles of his constituents, contributing to his steep decline in approval ratings.
— Lucy Rohden (@lucy_rohden) September 2, 2024
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A 2018 Texas Lyceum poll captured this shift, showing Cruz’s favorability dropping to 38%, with a 41% unfavorable rating. This sentiment remains pervasive, particularly among younger and more progressive voters, who view Cruz as emblematic of an out-of-touch political elite.
A Deeper Look at the 2022 Texas Election Numbers
To understand why Cruz’s position in Texas is increasingly precarious, it’s essential to analyze the numbers that reveal the state’s evolving political landscape. The 2022 gubernatorial race between Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democrat Beto O’Rourke provides a wealth of data that showcases the divide between urban and rural Texas.
In 2022, Abbott won with approximately 54.8% of the vote to O’Rourke’s 43.9%, a result that mirrors the growing strength of the Democratic vote in urban centers but the overwhelming Republican dominance in rural areas. Major urban counties like Harris (Houston), Dallas, and Travis (Austin) overwhelmingly supported O’Rourke. In Harris County, O’Rourke captured 54.6% of the vote, while in Dallas County, his support surged to 65%, and in Travis County, a staggering 73%.
The Texas Politics Project out of University of Texas – Austin had this to say after the 2022 election:
Even in the cities, there is considerable variance in the strength of the Democratic vote. Travis and Dallas counties much more closely resemble the frequently assumed default of “blue cities” than do Harris, Bexar, or (especially) Tarrant counties. O’Rourke received 72.61% of the vote in progressive Travis county (up from 66.81% in 2018 and 63.16% in 2014) and 62.78% of the vote in Dallas county (2018: 58.74%; 2014: 54.79%). In Bexar, O’Rourke received 57.47% of the vote (2018: 52.25%; 2014: 48.42%), while in Harris, he received 53.94% of the vote (2018: 52.11%; 2014: 47.08%). Abbott narrowly carried Tarrant after both O’Rourke and Biden narrowly won the county in the 2018 Senate race and the 2020 presidential election, respectively. While O’Rourke was not able to hold onto Tarrant in 2022, the same pattern of gradual Democratic improvement is evident: the Democrat received 47.42% of the vote this year, compared to 43.75% in 2018, and 41.08% in 2014.
Republicans have benefitted from increases in both the GOP vote share and the raw number of votes cast in rural Texas. Most counties in Texas can be classified as rural, and in these counties, Abbott improved his margins over prior elections (from 75.23% of the vote in 2014, to 77.19% in 2018, to 79.35% in 2022) — despite high-profile Democratic efforts to clawback at least some rural votes, particularly in the last two midterm elections. But despite the focus of both the press and pundits on the attention given to rural Texas by the campaigns, the 886,166 votes Abbott earned in these counties, which surpassed his total in the much higher turnout 2018 election by about 26,000 votes, is still equal to only 65% of the votes he gained in the 5 largest urban counties. The geographically large rural areas of Texas combined for 13.37% of registered voters in the 2022 election, and 13.84% of all votes cast.
However, these Democratic victories in urban centers were not enough to overcome the massive Republican margins in rural Texas. Abbott consistently won rural counties by 70-80%, with some small, less populous counties giving him as much as 90% of the vote. For example, Abbott won 90% of the vote in King County, a rural area with a population of fewer than 300 people. These stark disparities between rural and urban voting patterns are what have allowed Republicans like Cruz to maintain power in a state that is becoming increasingly competitive.
The broader story of Texas politics lies in this urban-rural divide. While cities like Houston, Dallas, and Austin represent Democratic strongholds, the sheer geographical size of Texas means that rural areas still carry significant electoral weight. Despite the lower population density in these regions, Republicans dominate the vote in such overwhelming numbers that they counterbalance Democratic gains in the urban centers.
The Demographic Shifts and the Road Ahead for Democrats
Democrats had long hoped that shifting demographics in Texas—particularly the growth of the Hispanic population—would tilt the state in their favor. According to census estimates, Hispanic residents now represent the largest ethnic group in Texas, surpassing non-Hispanic whites. While this demographic shift has contributed to closer races in recent years, it has not yet resulted in statewide victories for Democrats. In 2022, despite high hopes, Democrats fell short, and Republicans maintained control of the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.
One of the key factors that hampered Democratic efforts in 2022 was voter turnout. Although Texas saw record-breaking midterm turnout in 2018, driven in part by O’Rourke’s Senate campaign and anti-Trump fervor, that level of enthusiasm was not replicated in 2022. As a result, despite demographic trends that favor Democrats, Republicans continued to hold the line through strong rural support and higher turnout in key conservative areas.
The challenge for Democrats moving forward is clear: they must find a way to increase voter turnout, particularly among young, Hispanic, and urban voters, while also making inroads into rural Texas. As long as Republicans continue to dominate in rural areas by such overwhelming margins, statewide Democratic victories will remain elusive, even as urban populations grow.
The Implications for Cruz in 2024
Ted Cruz’s path to re-election in 2024 will hinge on his ability to navigate the shifting political dynamics of Texas. While rural voters remain a reliable base for Cruz, his unpopularity in urban centers poses a significant challenge. In 2020, Donald Trump won Texas by just over 5 percentage points, marking one of the narrowest margins for a Republican presidential candidate in the state in decades. This trend toward closer races suggests that Texas could become a battleground state, and Cruz’s polarizing persona may further complicate his re-election bid. The Texas Tribune does some of the best analysis on Texas elections; they wrote this after the 2022 elections:
Still, the failure of the Democrats to break a 28-year losing streak for statewide office shows the party has a long way to go.
Even if Republicans aren’t seeing their map expanding into new territory like South Texas, they can still clearly count on rural voters to hold the line against waves of new and potentially liberal voters moving into Texas’ major cities, said Landry, the West Texas college professor.
“As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don’t have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas,” he said. “Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott and [Lt. Gov. Dan] Patrick and all the others.”
As Texas continues to urbanize and diversify, the days of easy Republican victories are likely numbered. The viral video of the Texas A&M fan’s visceral reaction to Cruz could be a sign of things to come—a reflection of growing frustration among voters who feel increasingly disconnected from Cruz and the broader Republican Party. The challenge for Cruz will be to bridge the gap between his rural supporters and the increasingly Democratic urban electorate, a task that will require significant political maneuvering.
In conclusion, while the math still favors Republicans in Texas, the margin for error is shrinking. If Cruz cannot expand his appeal beyond his rural base, he may find himself on the wrong side of the state’s changing political tide.
Featured image via screengrab
