As the 2024 presidential election draws near, New Hampshire’s role as a battleground state has gained increasing importance. Traditionally a bellwether for national trends, New Hampshire is pivotal in determining the outcome of the race. However, recent developments have cast doubt on Donald Trump’s prospects in this crucial state, with even his former campaign volunteer raising alarms.
Trump’s New Hampshire Strategy Faces Scrutiny
Donald Trump’s campaign strategy in New Hampshire has come under scrutiny, particularly from some of his former supporters who are concerned about his ability to secure a victory in the state. Contrary to previous assumptions that New Hampshire was a prime target for Trump, recent reports indicate that his campaign has not made the state a priority. The Boston Globe gave us the low down on what’s happening:
Tom Mountain, who had served as one of several vice chairs for the former president’s effort in Massachusetts, wrote in an email to Trump volunteers in the state that “the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state,” and advised supporters to instead direct their attention to Pennsylvania. The GOP had been bullish about winning New Hampshire before President Biden dropped out of the race.
In the email, Mountain, a former official with the Massachusetts GOP, said Trump was “sure to lose by an even higher margin” in New Hampshire than in 2016 and 2020, citing “campaign data/research.” He claimed resources would be suspended and the campaign would not send Trump or high-profile surrogates such as his sons. The email was obtained by the Globe and confirmed with multiple recipients.
According to The Boston Globe, Trump’s campaign has not pulled back entirely, but its reduced focus on New Hampshire has raised questions about the viability of his strategy in this key battleground. The article highlights that while Trump initially targeted New Hampshire as a potential flip, the current dynamics suggest that the state may no longer be as winnable as once thought.
The Trump Campaign might be giving up on New Hampshire…..
There were signs. https://t.co/CYH9ptv61e pic.twitter.com/2hjXbdVbxc
— Kyle Sweetser (@sweetser_kyle) September 2, 2024
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Adding to Trump’s challenges, a recent poll conducted by Seacoast Online shows Kamala Harris expanding her lead over Trump in New Hampshire. This development is particularly alarming for the Trump campaign, as Harris’s growing support in the state suggests that the Democrats are gaining ground where it matters most. The poll indicates that Harris is ahead by a substantial margin, which could spell trouble for Trump as he tries to regain his footing. Seacoast Online added this:
Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, said Harris’ current lead is similar to Biden’s margin of victory over Trump in 2020 and reflects a return to “business as usual” in the Granite State.
“I think it reflects the basic layout of Democrats and Republicans in the state,” said Smith. “The replacement of Biden with Harris has obviously motivated Democrats to the point where I think any sort of advantage that Trump might have had has disappeared or back to the status quo ante.”
Polling Data Paints a Grim Picture
The polling data from New Hampshire has been far from encouraging for Trump. A compilation of recent polls by FiveThirtyEight reveals that Trump is trailing Harris by a significant margin in the state. This data, which reflects a broader national trend, underscores the challenges that Trump faces as he attempts to mount a successful campaign in 2024. Despite his previous successes in overcoming unfavorable polls, the current numbers suggest that Trump may be losing his grip on a state that he once considered winnable.
This situation is particularly complicated given Trump’s earlier focus on the state, where he had hoped to leverage his populist appeal to sway voters. The abrupt shift in strategy suggests a campaign in turmoil, struggling to find a path to victory in a state that was once seen as a key target.
The Impact of Harris’s Momentum
Kamala Harris’s rise in New Hampshire has not gone unnoticed. As the Democratic nominee, Harris has been able to capitalize on her growing popularity in the state, a trend that has been reflected in recent polling data. Harris has gained significant momentum, particularly among key demographic groups such as women and young voters. This surge in support has been attributed to a combination of factors, including Harris’s focus on issues that seem to be resonating with New Hampshire voters, such as healthcare and economic inequality.
Harris’s success in New Hampshire is also indicative of a broader national trend. As the first woman of color on a major party’s presidential ticket, Harris has energized a diverse coalition of voters who are eager to see change in the White House. This enthusiasm has translated into strong polling numbers, not just in New Hampshire, but in other battleground states as well.
The Road Ahead for Trump
The road to victory in New Hampshire looks increasingly difficult for Donald Trump. With his polling numbers lagging, the former president faces an uphill battle to regain lost ground. Trump’s previous successes in overcoming the odds may not be enough to secure a win in New Hampshire this time around.
However, it would be premature to count Trump out entirely. His ability to mobilize his base and attract first-time voters has been a hallmark of his previous campaigns, and it remains to be seen whether he can replicate that success in 2024. But with time running out and the momentum clearly on Harris’s side, Trump’s chances in New Hampshire are looking increasingly bleak.
A State in Flux
New Hampshire’s status as a battleground state makes it a critical component of any successful presidential campaign. For Donald Trump, the recent developments in the state are cause for concern. With polling data showing Trump trailing behind Kamala Harris, the former president’s path to victory in New Hampshire is uncertain at best. As the election approaches, all eyes will be on this key state to see whether Trump can turn the tide or if Harris will continue her march towards the White House.
Featured image via Political Tribune
