Trump has never been especially popular outside his base, but what the polls are showing now is different.
His net approval rating hit -23 percentage points among all Americans as of late March, according to YouGov’s tracker for The Economist. That matches Joe Biden’s worst numbers, recorded twice during his final year in office, and is worse than Trump’s previous second-term low of -21 recorded in 2017. His smoothed average sits at -20 with no sign of a rebound.
The war is the central driver.
Trump spent years suggesting Barack Obama might attack Iran to boost his 2012 election numbers. Both Bush presidents saw double-digit approval bumps at the start of their Middle Eastern conflicts. His own Iran war has done the opposite, with his approval on the conflict dropping from 39% in early March to 30% in the latest YouGov/Economist survey.
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59% of adults now oppose the conflict entirely. Even 24% of Republicans are against it, and among 2024 Trump voters, overall support for his presidency has dropped 6 points to 76% in the five weeks since the war began.
Among independents the picture is starker. Approval stands at just 22%, down from 31% in early March, with independents now opposing the war by more than two to one at 50% to 24%.
The economy has compounded the damage.
Only 29% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest economic approval of either of his terms and lower than Biden’s worst economic number ever recorded by that pollster.
A CNN poll found 65% say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse, the highest figure of his presidency. Around three-quarters describe the economy as in poor shape, up 8 points since January, with the share calling it “very poor” up 12 points.
Gas above $4 a gallon is a significant part of why. Prices have jumped roughly a dollar since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February. Only 19% of Trump’s own voters said they would accept a $1 increase at the pump to secure a military victory. Just 12% said a $2 increase would be acceptable. Those numbers say a lot about where his base is quietly heading.
Republicans are holding for now.
His approval among his own party hovers between 80 and 90%, which is what keeps a floor under his overall numbers. Data journalist G. Elliott Morris estimates that floor sits around 33 or 34%.
“The only reason Donald Trump’s approval rating is not 30 percent today is because of Republicans, because there’s such polarization,” Morris said. But even within the base, cracks are visible. Among self-described MAGA supporters, approval has dropped 5 points to 92% since the war began. That is still high. The direction is not.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
