Appearing on CNN, the network’s data analyst Harry Enten laid out four new surveys showing Trump at fresh second-term lows. The numbers were stark.
“Look at this, I got four numbers across for you on this screen here. They are all second-term lows for the given pollster. What are we talking about? AP-NORC, 26 points below water. NBC, 22 points below water. Yahoo-YouGov, 20 points below the water. Quinnipiac, 19 points below water. So we’re ranging from -19 points, all the way to -26 points,” Enten explained.
“You know, Kate, there’s this question that folks keep asking, you know, ‘Where is the floor for Donald Trump?’ And I’m not sure there is a floor, because if there is one, Donald Trump, at least in term No. 2, has just fallen through it to another low level!”
The comparison that followed was even more striking.
“The bottom line is this: Donald Trump is setting new records for himself in term No. 2, setting new records for himself compared to where he was at this time in term No. 1. And he is doing worse than Biden, which is of course a comparison that Donald Trump does not want to be because we all know what happened to Joe Biden,” Enten said.
Stay up-to-date with the latest news!
Subscribe and start recieving our daily emails.
“Well, we’re talking about independents, we’re talking about independents. When you lose the center of the electorate, you lose the American people. Trump’s net approval rating among independents, you know, at this point, you go back, term number one, he was 17 points below water. Now, according to Quinnipiac, he is 27 points below water. I don’t understand how this works out well for the president of the United States. When you are 27 points below water, underwater, with the center of the electorate, with independents, you lose, your party loses,” he added.
“At this point, I don’t really know who to even compare Donald Trump to because he’s just so low, and he’s so low with the center of the electorate.”
History provides perspective. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 25 seats in the midterms. Only twice has the party in power gained ground, in 1998 and 2002, both times with soaring approval ratings.
The only president with a midterm rating lower than Trump’s current standing was Harry Truman in 1946 at 33%, when Democrats lost 55 House seats. In 2006, George W. Bush was at 38%, and Republicans lost 30 seats. In Trump’s first term, when approval was 41%, the GOP lost 40 seats.
Today, the map is tighter, and fewer districts are truly competitive.
Featured image via YouTube screengrab
