Trump’s approval among independents has fallen to 34%, a figure with an ugly track record for whichever party holds power heading into November.
That number sits below the 36% mark that preceded Democrats’ 41-seat wave in 2018, according to tracking from USPollingData.com. And there’s a pretty consistent history behind it. Every president who’s lost more than 20 House seats at a midterm did so with independent approval under 40% heading into Election Day, and Trump is now well past that line with two months still to go.
Civiqs’ own rolling tracker points to the same conclusion.
Built from registered voter responses through September 2, it puts Trump at 35% approval against 59% disapproval, a net rating of -24. That’s a steep drop from where he stood on his first day back in office, and it leaves him underwater in every state that typically decides national elections.
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Arizona sits at -14. Georgia at -23. Nevada at -23. North Carolina at -16. Ohio at -17. Pennsylvania at -18. Wisconsin at -18. Florida, a state he carried comfortably in 2024, has flipped to -10.
🚨TRUMP’S JOB APPROVAL HITS RECORD LOW IN FLORIDA🚨
Trump’s net job approval in Florida just hit a record low of -12% according to @Civiqs.
At the same time in 2018, when Andrew Gillum barely lost the Governors race, Trump’s net job approval was -3%. pic.twitter.com/GPEftmjFNU
— JulesNader386 (@Julesnader386) September 3, 2026
2018 offers its own uncomfortable comparison.
Reuters/Ipsos polling from mid-August that year had Trump at 41% approval, eight points higher than his 33% reading from the same pollster this cycle.
Political analyst Geoffrey Skelley connected that gap to voter enthusiasm in comments to The Hill, describing Democrats as “extremely animated” heading into the fall. “So they’re looking very enthusiastic to turn out,” he said, “and the midterms have lower turnout,” a dynamic that has historically rewarded whichever side actually shows up to vote.
Even Trump’s strongest states are sliding at roughly the same rate as everywhere else. Wyoming remains his best state at +22, down from +47 on day one. West Virginia has fallen from +35 to +15. Kentucky opened at +23 and now sits at -7. Oklahoma has dropped from +31 to +4.
These aren’t swing states running out of patience with him. These are the states that gave him his biggest cushions to start with, and they’re losing ground faster than anywhere else on the map.
A cluster of states now sit close enough to zero that a single bad news cycle could tip them. Tennessee and Utah are dead even. Indiana and Nebraska sit at -2. Kansas is barely positive at +2. Montana and Oklahoma both hold at +4. From a distance, the map still looks like the one Trump started with. Up close, it’s a stack of states within a point or two of changing sides entirely.
The White House hasn’t budged from its usual response.
Spokesperson Davis Ingle has repeated the same line across multiple rounds of polling, pointing back to the 2024 election as the real measure of public support. “No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump,” he said, adding that the administration is “working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more,” and that “this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
