A new Emerson College poll is already shaping the early 2028 conversation, and two names are clearly out front: Gavin Newsom and JD Vance.
The survey, released Feb. 25, comes as Donald Trump faces slipping approval numbers.
According to Emerson, 55% of likely voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing, up four points from January. His approval rating stands at 43%, unchanged from last month. The poll was conducted Feb. 21–22, just days before Trump delivered his record-length State of the Union address on Feb. 24, where he declared, “This is the golden age of America,” and added, “We have achieved a transformation like no one has ever seen before. It is a turnaround for the ages.”
But while Trump looks backward and defends his record, the Emerson numbers look ahead.
Stay up-to-date with the latest news!
Subscribe and start recieving our daily emails.
On the Democratic side, California Gov. Gavin Newsom tops the early 2028 primary field with 20%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg follows at 16%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris sits at 13%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez registers 9%, with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7% and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 5%.
Roughly 24% of Democratic voters remain undecided. The breakdown shows clear demographic splits.
Ocasio-Cortez leads among voters under 30 with 20%. Buttigieg performs strongest among women and postgraduates, both at 20% or higher. Newsom leads among voters 50 and older at 23%. Black voters favor Harris at 36%.
Even this early, factions inside the party are visible.
On the Republican side, the picture is far less fragmented. JD Vance stands well ahead of the pack, pulling in support from 52% of voters who say they would take part in a 2028 GOP primary. Marco Rubio places a distant second with 20%, and Ron DeSantis lags further behind at 6%.
Further down the list, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. draws 4% support. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley follows with 3%, while Senator Ted Cruz posts 1%. Roughly 11% of Republican voters say they have not yet made a decision.
Emerson polling director Spencer Kimball said the message is clear. Republican voters are firmly behind Vance. Independents who plan to vote in the GOP primary also favor him, though by a smaller margin, 33% to 23%.
Beyond 2028 positioning, the poll carries immediate political implications. In a generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 42%, an eight-point advantage. Among Hispanic voters, Trump’s disapproval has jumped sharply. Emerson reports 58% now disapprove, compared to 45% last month, a 13-point increase in just one month.
Separate national polling adds to the pressure. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 61% of respondents say Trump has “become erratic with age.”
Across party lines, the cost of living stands out as the leading concern as the 2026 midterms approach. Voters rated it 8.2 out of 10 in importance, placing it ahead of healthcare costs, inflation, deportation policy, and border security.
Featured image via YouTube screengrab
