New polling suggests Vice President JD Vance’s once-assumed glide path to becoming the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee may be far less stable than conservatives hoped. While no major GOP figure has officially launched a campaign, early data shows Vance losing ground—and fast—to Donald Trump Jr., raising new questions about whether voters are souring on the Trump orbit more broadly. (Newsweek reporting: McLaughlin & Associates polling)
According to McLaughlin & Associates, Vance’s dominance in early hypothetical matchups has eroded over the past several months. In August, he led Donald Trump Jr. by 20 points, holding 36% to Trump Jr.’s 16%. That lead expanded to 28 points in September. But by October, the gap dropped to 18 points—38% for Vance and 20% for Trump Jr. And in November, the decline became even more pronounced: Vance fell to 34%, while Trump Jr. climbed to 24%, shrinking the lead to just 10 points. (Source: Newsweek, citing McLaughlin & Associates survey of 439 voters from Nov. 17–24)
These internal GOP struggles are unfolding as Donald Trump faces some of the weakest polling of his tenure. A recent Economist/YouGov poll found that just 39% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while 58% disapprove—a net negative of 19 points and his lowest rating since returning to office. (Source: The Economist/YouGov Poll)
Political analyst Mark Shanahan, speaking to Newsweek, argues that Vance’s decline is directly tied to Trump’s slump. Because Vance must remain publicly aligned with the administration, any drag on Trump becomes a drag on him. Shanahan put it plainly: “While Trump’s polling is languishing, Vance suffers.” (Source: Interview with Newsweek)
Stay up-to-date with the latest news!
Subscribe and start recieving our daily emails.
To be fair, not all indicators spell trouble for Vance. A broad YouGov survey conducted from November 6–9 shows him performing significantly better, winning 42% support, with Trump Jr. far behind at 13%. That poll surveyed 2,172 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of ±2.8 points. (Source: YouGov)
Another poll, conducted by Echelon Insights between October 16–20, placed Vance at 46%—again with Trump Jr. trailing—suggesting that he still enjoys strong standing among some segments of the Republican electorate. (Source: Echelon Insights, 1,010 likely voters)
Still, the broader trend is hard to ignore. The Republican base appears increasingly fractured, and the more Trump struggles publicly, the harder it becomes for Vance to maintain the aura of inevitability around a future presidential run. With Trump barred by the 22nd Amendment from seeking a third term, Republicans will soon be forced to choose a successor—and the assumption that Vance would inherit the MAGA movement now looks far shakier.
The potential 2028 field remains fluid. Axios recently floated Senator Ted Cruz as a possibility, prompting Cruz to brush off the speculation in an interview with Fox News. Trump himself has publicly praised potential successors—including Vance, Marco Rubio, and others—calling them an “unstoppable” combination. (Sources: Axios; Fox News; Newsweek)
For now, the wait continues. Most candidates won’t formally launch campaigns until after the midterms. But one thing is increasingly clear: the once-anointed heir to Trumpism is no longer cruising uncontested. Vance may still be Trump’s ideological successor—but 2028 Republicans look far less certain they want a sequel.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
