The war in Iran and soaring gas prices have led to another new low in President Donald Trump’s approval rating.
According to the respected election forecaster Nate Silver, on his website The Silver Bulletin, Trump’s approval rating has gone below 40 percent.
“For the first time in his second term, Trump’s approval rating in our average is (just barely) below 40 percent at 39.7. And his net approval rating is -17.4, also a new low. The recent decline has been pretty steep: about 5 points of net approval over the past several weeks,” Silver wrote on his site.
There are quite a few reasons for the bad numbers for the president.
Deeper dive on all of this in today’s newsletter. https://t.co/quh91xt5CQ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 30, 2026
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“From a political standpoint, the most important events since November are probably the killing of two American citizens by border agents in Minneapolis in January, and then, of course, the Iran War, which began on Feb. 28.2 The effect of Minneapolis on Trump’s topline numbers is more debatable,” Silver wrote. “Trump’s ratings have declined on immigration, and the government’s conduct in Minneapolis was deeply unpopular with swing voters. Immigration and “border security” remain just about the only issues where Trump’s ratings remain close to breakeven, however.”
Recent events have also not been great for the president’s standing.
“Iran has had a much clearer impact. So far, though, it’s probably less about the war itself than about the impact on gas prices, which are now at about $4 nationally, having risen by more than a dollar over the past month,” Silver wrote.
NEW UMass Amherst poll, Trump approval:
33% approve
62% disapproveHis lowest approval ever pic.twitter.com/31lI3OzoR0
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) March 30, 2026
According to the RealClearPolling polling average of Trump’s approval rating, it now stands at -15.5, which would be the low-water mark of his second presidency if the rating hadn’t hit -15.8 a couple of days earlier. On that average, Trump has now been in negative territory for more than a year- it was positive for the first few weeks of his second term, before going underwater on March 12, 2025, and staying that way ever since. As of now, an average of 41.1 percent approve of Trump — which is slightly higher than Nate Silver’s average — and 56.6 disapprove.
Now, every single poll listed has Trump underwater, all of them by double digits with the exception of two that have him at -9. Even the traditionally pro-Republican Rasmussen Reports has Trump at -13.
Photo courtesy of the Political Tribune media library.
