Kari Lake, a staunch Trump supporter and former Arizona gubernatorial candidate, is now running for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona. According to the latest Fox News poll, she is facing a major uphill battle. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate, holds a commanding 15-point lead over Lake, with 56% of voters supporting him compared to 41% for Lake.
This 15-point deficit underscores Lake’s struggles, especially given her close alignment with Donald Trump and her repeated claims that the 2020 election was stolen. Lake’s staunch embrace of Trump’s divisive rhetoric appears to be alienating large swaths of voters, particularly moderates and independents, who are critical in determining outcomes in battleground states like Arizona. In fact, the numbers in this Fox News poll highlight how far Lake’s appeal has shrunk beyond her MAGA base.
Lake’s Struggles With Independent Voters
Kari Lake has had a difficult time making inroads with independents in Arizona, and this is proving to be a key factor in her trailing Gallego so significantly. In other recent polls, Ruben Gallego has been outperforming Lake by a wide margin among independents, often by 18 points or more, leaving Lake to rely heavily on the Republican base to close the gap. However, this same base, while crucial for winning primaries, seems to have limited traction in the general election, where voters tend to favor more moderate candidates.
Lake’s underperformance among independent voters is a significant issue. Arizona’s electorate has a large contingent of independents, and these voters often swing elections in the state. Gallego’s appeal among independents, along with his ability to rally Democrats and moderate Republicans, makes him a formidable opponent. In contrast, Lake’s connection to election denialism and other far-right positions are leaving her isolated in the polls.
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Trouble Among Latino Voters
Arizona’s significant Latino population is also a critical factor in this race. Polling data shows that Gallego holds a commanding lead among Latino voters, with 63% of the demographic backing him compared to just 29% for Lake. Latino voters in Arizona have become an increasingly powerful force in recent elections, playing a crucial role in Democratic victories like Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 presidential race. Lake’s inability to connect with this crucial voting bloc only compounds her struggles.
Trump’s Shadow and Lake’s Popularity Issues
Kari Lake’s deep connection to Donald Trump continues to define her political identity, but that same connection appears to be backfiring in a state that has grown increasingly resistant to Trumpism. Lake has closely aligned herself with Trump’s false claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election, even making similar unfounded accusations about her own 2022 loss in the Arizona gubernatorial race. While this plays well to her MAGA supporters, it appears to alienate the broader electorate in Arizona, as Trump’s popularity wanes in the state. In fact, Lake is underperforming Trump himself among Republican voters, polling five points lower than the former president.
This indicates that even within her own party, Lake is struggling to rally the full support of Republican voters. Meanwhile, Gallego is outperforming Vice President Kamala Harris among Democratic voters, consolidating nearly 88.2% of the Democratic vote.
Broader Implications for the Arizona Senate Race
This race is critical not just for Arizona but for the broader control of the U.S. Senate. Arizona has become a key battleground state after years of being a Republican stronghold. With Senator Kyrsten Sinema stepping aside, this race is particularly important as Democrats aim to hold onto control of the Senate.
If Gallego continues to perform well in polls and ultimately wins the seat, it would mark a significant victory for Democrats, further solidifying Arizona’s shift from a red state to a purple one. The race has attracted national attention, with both parties pouring resources into what is expected to be a highly competitive contest.
Oh No You Didn’t
Kari Lake’s deep ties to Trump and the MAGA movement, while popular among her base, are proving to be a liability in a general election that demands broader appeal. With 15 points separating her from Gallego in the most recent Fox News poll, and Gallego’s strong performance among key demographics like independents and Latinos, Lake is facing an uphill battle. As Arizona continues to shift politically, Lake’s hardline rhetoric and election denialism are likely to hinder her campaign, giving Gallego a clear advantage heading into the final stretch of the race.
Featured Image Via Political Tribune Gallery
