You can win over a loyal base, but ignoring the doubts of the wider flock is risky. And yes, the polls are whispering.
New Fox News polling conducted March 20 through 23 shows Trump’s approval rating has flipped negative among both Catholics and Protestants since late February, even as support among white evangelicals has grown stronger.
Among Catholics, 48% now approve of Trump’s job performance while 52% disapprove, a net negative of 4 points. Just weeks ago, the numbers ran the other way.
In the previous Fox News poll conducted February 28 through March 2, Catholics gave Trump a net positive of 4 points, with 52% approving and 48% disapproving. That is an 8-point swing in less than a month.
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Protestants tell a similar story. In late February, they were evenly split at 50% approve and 50% disapprove. By late March, approval had slipped to 47% while disapproval climbed to 53%, producing a net negative of 6 points.
White evangelicals are the exception. Trump’s approval among that group rose from 60% to 64% over the same period, widening his net positive from 20 points to 28. That group has always been his most reliable religious base and shows no signs of moving.
The shift did not happen randomly. It lines up with the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, the same point where the earlier poll ended.
In the weeks after that, the Iran war took over. Civilian casualties, a school strike, rising gas prices, and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz all followed.
That stretch changed the conversation.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw said many voters judge the conflict based on how they already feel about Trump. Facts get filtered through that view. Among Catholics and Protestants, that view now looks different.
Religious voters have historically been one of the most stable pillars of Republican support. Catholics in particular are a swing group that both parties compete for in every election cycle. Trump won Catholics narrowly in 2024 after losing them in 2020. Losing them again before the midterms, where every seat counts, is a serious warning sign.
The White House dismissed it anyway.
Spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that “the ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump.” A separate official insisted that despite online commentators with large followings publicly disagreeing with the president, “the MAGA base is not wavering one bit.”
Both polls surveyed about 1,001 registered voters using phone interviews and online surveys, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
