When the United States launched strikes against Iran earlier this month, the decision carried enormous risks. Now, new reporting suggests those risks were clearly explained to Donald Trump before the operation began.
According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, Dan Caine repeatedly warned the president that Iran would likely respond by targeting or closing the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway is one of the most important energy routes in the world, with a large share of global oil shipments passing through it each day.
Military briefings reportedly told Trump that Iran could deploy missiles, drones, and naval forces to disrupt shipping in the area if the United States launched strikes. Despite those warnings, the administration moved forward with the operation, believing Iran might back down under pressure.
That is not what happened.
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In the weeks since the strikes, Iranian vessels and allied forces have reportedly blocked or attacked commercial ships moving through the strait. As a result, hundreds of oil tankers have remained idle in nearby waters, waiting for safer conditions before attempting the passage.
The disruption has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel and rattled global energy markets. Analysts say the situation now represents one of the largest oil supply disruptions in modern history.
Trump’s strategy reportedly relied on two key assumptions. First, that Iran would avoid escalation and reopen the route quickly. Second, that the United States military could manage the situation if Iran attempted to shut the waterway down.
But military planners now warn the situation is far more complicated.
Pentagon officials are reportedly concerned that escorting commercial ships through the strait could make U.S. naval vessels direct targets for Iranian missiles or drones unless Iranian naval capabilities are destroyed first. Such a move could dramatically widen the conflict.
Members of Congress have also raised concerns.
Chris Murphy said he left a classified briefing with administration officials troubled by the lack of preparation for a prolonged crisis. According to Murphy, officials appeared to have no clear plan for how to reopen the waterway once Iran began blocking it.
“The fact that they didn’t have a plan ahead of time was shocking,” he said after the briefing.
Meanwhile, the human cost of the conflict continues to rise. Reports indicate that at least 13 U.S. service members have been killed during the operation. Iranian casualties have been far higher, with estimates placing the death toll above 1,300 people.
One of the most controversial incidents involved a strike that reportedly hit a school, killing more than 170 students. The event triggered international criticism and demands for further investigation into the circumstances of the attack.
Facing growing pressure, Trump has begun calling on other countries to help secure the shipping route. In a recent post on Truth Social, he suggested nations affected by the disruption, including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom – should deploy naval forces alongside the United States.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
