Five states have held their primaries. Democrats surged in four of them, including two that Trump won every single time he ran. For a party clinging to thin majorities in both chambers, that is not a comfortable start.
In North Carolina, Democrats cast 827,742 votes in their Senate primary compared to 627,400 on the Republican side. In Texas, roughly 2.31 million Democrats showed up against 2.17 million Republicans. These are not blue states. They are states where Democrats were not supposed to be this energized this early.
Illinois told an even starker story. Democratic candidates accounted for 69% of ballots cast in the Senate primary, a striking number given that Kamala Harris only pulled 54% of the Illinois vote in the 2024 presidential election. Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination and is heavily favored heading into November.
Even Mississippi, a state Trump won with 60% of the vote in 2024, nearly broke even. Republicans cast 156,859 votes to Democrats’ 146,496. For a state that nobody considers competitive, that gap is uncomfortably narrow.
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Arkansas was the only state where Republicans dominated, with more than 283,000 GOP votes against fewer than 131,000 Democratic ones.
The numbers have experts worried.
“Republicans should be very concerned,” Costas Panagopoulos of Northeastern University told Newsweek. “Given the historically narrow majority, particularly in the House, that Republicans enjoy at the moment, it should be especially concerning.”
Grant Davis Reeher of Syracuse University was equally direct. “I think the primary turnout we’re seeing on the Democratic side is evidence for a relative surge in general Democratic electoral energy. Republicans do not seem to have the same energy.”
The context behind those numbers tells its own story. Trump’s approval rating is at a historic low. His base is fracturing over the Iran war. Thirteen Americans are dead, oil is above $100 a barrel, and the MAGA coalition that delivered him three consecutive popular vote wins is publicly arguing with itself on social media.
None of that is a recipe for enthusiasm among the voters Republicans need to turn out in November.
Reeher laid out what Republicans are actually working with. “It won’t be Trump per se – he won’t be on the ballot. And it’s unclear which of Trump’s initiatives so far are inspiring them. I don’t think they’ll be able to run on the border this time. The wars in the Middle East are splitting the country. Debt and deficit issues have never won an election.”
The RNC called Democratic candidates “radical” and predicted voters would “once again reject their far-left vision.” The DNC said Democrats are “organizing and competing everywhere” and have no intention of letting up.
May 5 brings Indiana and Ohio. Until then, the first five states have delivered a message that is hard to talk away.
Featured image via YouTube screengrab
