CNN data analyst Harry Enten has spent much of Donald Trump’s second term delivering rough polling updates. On Thursday, he shifted focus to Melania Trump.
It was not much of a break.
Enten revealed that Melania Trump’s net favorability has hit a historic low of minus 12 points. Just over a year ago, she was at plus 3. Back in May 2018, during Trump’s first term, she was sitting at plus 30. That is a 42-point drop. In polling terms, that is not a decline. That is a collapse.
“The American people really don’t care for Melania Trump,” Enten said.
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The historical comparison only deepened the wound. Nancy Reagan polled at plus 50 at this point in a second term. Michelle Obama sat at plus 42. Laura Bush came in at plus 46. Even Hillary Clinton, in the middle of her husband’s affair scandal, managed plus 25. Melania is at minus 12.
Part of the explanation sits in a theater near you, or rather, it did briefly before disappearing.
Amazon MGM paid $40 million for the rights to the film, the highest price ever paid for a commissioned documentary, and spent another $35 million on marketing. It was advertised on billboards, buses, and at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Trump declared it the biggest movie in the world.
The world disagreed. “Unless Amazon is able to make this up through streaming, this is going to be a historic bomb,” Enten said. He was not wrong. Spending $75 million to make $17 million back is not a movie. It is a very expensive way to make things worse.
That financial disaster fed directly into the polling. Enten suggested the documentary itself contributed to her decline, saying many viewers saw it as political even if she did not intend it that way.
The film followed Melania in the lead-up to Trump’s second inauguration, was directed by disgraced filmmaker Brett Ratner, and was reviewed by critics with words like vapid and lifeless.
Trump, for his part, has continued referring to his wife as a movie star at public events, which suggests he either has not seen the numbers or has decided not to let them interfere with his narrative. Both are plausible.
Enten, meanwhile, had a conclusion ready.
“Melania Trump breaking records in the way that you don’t want to break records. Historically awful,” he said.
To be fair, Melania is not alone in the bad news department. Enten has also spent months tracking Trump’s own approval rating, which has been underwater every single day for over a year. He recently noted Democrats now have a 46% chance of taking back both the House and Senate in 2026, up from 21% at the start of the year.
Featured image via YouTube screengrab
