The Republican Party is widely expected to lose its House majority in the midterm elections this November, between Donald Trump’s low approval rating and the traditional progression of incumbent parties losing seats two years into a new presidential term.
However, even nearly a year before those elections, the GOP majority is already getting smaller, as USA Today reported this week.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) suddenly passed away this week, while Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) departed Congress, after her resignation became official on January 5. Both are in fairly safe red districts, and while a March 10 special election has been called for Greene’s former seat, it remains unclear when the California seat will be filled.
Therefore, as of now, the GOP holds a majority in the House of 218-213, with 216 the bare minimum to keep a majority in the House. This opens a possibility, albeit a remote one, that the Republicans could lose the House majority during the current Congress.
Check out this story from USA TODAY: Departures and a tragedy shrink Trump’s GOP majority
President Trump’s GOP majority in the House is shrinking with the resignation of Marjorie Taylor Greene and sudden death of Doug LaMalfa.https://t.co/6PGRXlt2XJ
— John Miles (@jmiles7291) January 6, 2026
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“In addition, Rep. Jim Baird, R-Indiana, was hospitalized this week alongside his wife following a car crash that Trump called a “bad accident.” His office said he is expected to make a full recovery. Baird’s temporary absence from the Capitol will complicate Speaker Mike Johnson’s job of keeping Republicans in line amid a midterm election year when Democrats are trying to remain unified as they try to win back the House majority,” USA Today reported.
Trump seems aware of this.
“It’s not a big majority,” Trump told House members earlier this week during his address to them. “But it is a unified majority.”
Last year, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) had been announced as the nominee as ambassador to the United Nations, but that nomination was later pulled, when Republicans realized her seat might not be safe and would make the Republican House majority even smaller. Stefanik later planned to run for governor of New York, but late last year she dropped out, and also announced she wasn’t running for re-election to Congress.
Control of the House flipping mid-Congress has never happened in modern history, although control of the Senate flipped from the Republicans to the Democrats in the summer of 2001, when Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont switched from Republican to independent and began caucusing with Democrats.
Photo courtesy of the Political Tribune media library.
