The Iran war is dragging Trump’s approval down week by week. Three weeks in, the drop is no longer gradual; it’s a collapse.
The latest Daily Mail/JL Partners poll has the damage at 42%, six points below where Trump stood in January and the lowest approval rating of his entire political career. The war did not cause all of it. But it accelerated everything.
Gas is where most Americans feel it. Before the strikes on Iran began on February 28, the national average sat at $2.90 a gallon. It is now $3.90. A dollar more at the pump, in a single month, for a war that 49% of registered voters say they oppose. Three weeks ago, the opposition stood at 39%. It has not stopped climbing.
When asked who deserves the blame for rising gas prices, 54% pointed at Trump. Only 20% said Iran. Even within his own voter base, 27% held Trump responsible. That is not a number a president recovers from easily, especially one who ran on cheaper gas and no more forever wars.
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Inflation is cutting even deeper than the war itself. 44% of those disapproving of Trump cited the cost of living as their primary reason, up from 38% at the start of March. Economic confidence has collapsed to its worst point since inauguration day. 54% of registered voters believe the economy is getting worse. Only 16% think it is improving, a 14-point drop in a single month.
The human cost is registering in the numbers, too. Thirteen Americans are dead, more than 200 are injured, and voters have made clear they will not accept much more. Only 13% said up to 100 American casualties would be acceptable. At 1,000 deaths, that dropped to 9%. At 10,000, just 7% said they could live with it.
Trump’s base has not abandoned him. But it is loosening its grip. 75% of Trump voters supported the war in early March. That figure now stands at 61%, with 22% actively opposed. One in four Trump voters believes the strikes on Iran were the wrong call entirely.
Independents are the number that should worry Republicans most heading into November. They oppose the war two to one, 50% against and 24% in support. No midterm strategy survives that math if it holds.
On Friday, Trump stood in the White House and told guests: “We’re doing extremely well in Iran.” The poll closed the same day.
The one bright spot in the entire survey belongs to JD Vance. His approval rating held at 47%, five points above the president he serves. A vice president outpolling his own boss would be a footnote in any normal administration. In this one, it is the best news the White House has had all week.
The poll covered 1,037 registered voters between March 18 and 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
