Donald Trump has been impeached twice, but he’s never seriously faced the 25th Amendment, under which the president of the United States can be removed from office in the event he is found to be incapacitated.
Section 4 of the 25th Amendment states that “whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.” That amendment has never been invoked in the years since it was ratified in 1967.
However, one report states that prediction markets are seeing increased odds of that happening for the first time with Trump.
The 25th Amendment allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare a president unable to perform the duties of office. https://t.co/Q8o67h3TGW
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) April 5, 2026
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“Prediction markets tracking the likelihood that President Donald Trump could be removed from office under the 25th Amendment saw a steady climb this weekend, reflecting heightened public speculation as the Iran war intensifies and the president’s recent statements draw widespread scrutiny,” Newsweek wrote.
According to the prediction market Kalshi, a contract asks, “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump’s presidency?” And volume has been rising in recent days.
“Prices on the ‘Yes’ side rose in recent days, from 28.6 percent to 35.1 percent within the last month,” Newsweek wrote of the contract. “It is the second highest the number has been since the start of the second term. The poll started at 15 percent yes in January 2025.”
The 25th Amendment (ratified in 1967) outlines the procedures for presidential succession and removing an incapacitated president. Section 4 allows the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet to declare the President unfit, transferring powers to the Vice President… https://t.co/y3PeIYvYML
— Mark Seddon (@MarkSeddon1962) April 5, 2026
It is, alas, still exceedingly unlikely that the 25th Amendment will ever be invoked in Trump’s case. It would require Trump’s cabinet, along with the vice president, to turn on him, amongst a group known for their unshakable loyalty to the president. If invoking the 25th were ever a possibility, Trump would probably remove them first.
Photo courtesy of the Political Tribune media library.
