Donald Trump’s relationship with evangelical Christians has been a cornerstone of his political base for years. Evangelicals were pivotal in securing his 2016 victory, and despite his personal flaws, many stuck with him in 2020. However, recent polling data and insights from religious leaders suggest that his once ironclad grip on this voting bloc may be slipping.
In the past, Trump’s appeal to evangelicals was not driven by his personal piety but by his promises to deliver power to religious institutions. As Pew Research noted, many Christians have viewed Trump as a “defender of faith,” despite his controversial behavior. His administration’s policies on issues such as abortion, religious liberty, and judicial appointments aligned with evangelical priorities, making him a transactional ally rather than a moral role model. Trump openly declared himself a nondenominational Christian during his presidency, having grown up Presbyterian, which signaled to many that he was shifting to embrace broader religious support.
Still, the tides may be changing. As Doug Pagitt, executive director of Vote Common Good, explains, Trump’s support among Christian voters is no longer as solid as it once was. Pagitt, who spends much of his time speaking to evangelical and Catholic voters, points out that Trump’s apparent lack of kindness is alienating many within the faith community. These voters, Pagitt asserts, are beginning to realize that “the way they vote reflects on them” and that they no longer want to be associated with the former president’s divisive rhetoric and cruel policies, such as separating migrant families at the border (MSNBC).
This shift was apparent in recent surveys. According to a Deseret News/HarrisX poll, while 68% of evangelical Protestants still support Trump, Harris is gaining ground among other Christian groups. Among non-evangelical Protestants, Harris leads with 55%, while Trump’s support remains at 37%. This signals a growing openness among Christian voters to consider alternatives, despite Trump’s past dominance. Moreover, the survey showed a split among Catholics, with 46% backing Trump and 46% supporting Harris, indicating that Harris may have the potential to peel away religious voters in key battleground states.
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These shifting dynamics are echoed in a Pew Research study that highlights how Christian voters have become increasingly disillusioned with Trump’s behavior. The report notes that many evangelicals have been driven away by his lack of decency and his penchant for cruelty, especially toward women and marginalized communities. Trump’s brash demeanor may have once been tolerated, but as Pagitt emphasizes, Christians are beginning to reject the harshness that has become synonymous with his brand.
Kamala Harris’s candidacy is further complicating Trump’s hold on evangelical voters. Harris has embraced an inclusive approach to faith, openly discussing her Baptist upbringing alongside her Hindu roots and her interfaith marriage to Jewish husband, Douglas Emhoff. This diverse religious background is appealing to voters who value tolerance and unity, both hallmarks of the Democratic platform. According to another Pew Research poll, Harris has energized Democratic voters, particularly those of faith, who see her as a candidate that reflects the values of kindness, compassion, and community.
Additionally, as Harris makes strides among younger Christian voters and people of color, her appeal is gaining traction in parts of the electorate that Trump has traditionally struggled with. Black Protestants and Hispanic Catholics overwhelmingly support Harris over Trump, according to the Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll, where she garners 89% and 50% of their votes, respectively. This broadening of faith-based support represents a significant challenge to Trump’s re-election campaign.
The erosion of Trump’s evangelical base should not be underestimated. While his most loyal supporters may remain, particularly among white evangelical Protestants, there is a growing recognition that aligning with Trump may not align with the values many Christians hold dear. As Pagitt notes, “It’s OK not to vote for the Republican,” signaling a shift in the narrative that has long dominated conservative Christian circles.
Trump’s strategy to regain these voters has involved picking a running mate, JD Vance, who converted to Catholicism and represents an attempt to shore up support among religious conservatives. However, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to counter the growing sense among Christians that they no longer need to vote Republican out of obligation or fear. For many, the 2024 election may represent a break from the transactional politics of the past, with a renewed focus on moral leadership and compassionate governance.
As Trump’s hold over evangelical voters continues to slip, the 2024 election could mark a significant shift in the political landscape. Evangelicals, long seen as a lock for Republicans, may finally be open to reconsidering their political allegiances, and this could have profound implications for the future of American politics.
Featured Image via Creative Commmons
