Donald Trump will return to the White House following a dominant win in Tuesday’s presidential election. Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden’s 2020 performance nearly everywhere and with nearly every demographic, as Trump seems likely to sweep every battleground state. In addition, Republicans have captured the Senate majority and are likely to take the House as well.
There has been a great deal of gloom and doom, even beyond what normally follows a presidential loss. After all, Trump has been impeached twice, indicted in four separate cases, found liable for sexual assault, carried out an insurrection, and has said and done countless other things that would seemingly instantly end the careers of just about every other political figure.
This is the likely final presidential election map. What a campaign by Trump and Vance. pic.twitter.com/fU9Hl8YSFF
— DJ (@dj_case) November 6, 2024
Democrats’ theory of how to win the election was decimated, while the electorate made clear that despite all that, the return of Trump was what they wanted.
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As a result, bad things will happen, and many, many people will suffer. Migrants may be deported, violent insurrections may be pardoned, reproductive rights will remain guaranteed, the government may pull back on fluoride and vaccines, and Trump’s criminal cases will likely disappear.
But despite all that, there are reasons for liberals and Democrats to not despair, and to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
He’s probably going to screw it up
Enacting an agenda with ruthless efficiency, with little trouble or drama, has never been the Trump way. Trump’s first term was plagued by nearly constant chaos, infighting, feuds, and members of the cabinet fired via tweet, even the ones who were supposed to be Trump loyalists. The first Trump term was surprisingly light on legislative accomplishments, aside from tax cuts.
It’s very likely Trump’s second term will go similarly, even as he has vowed to pack the administration with rock-solid loyalists. Trump has assembled such an unwieldy coalition that he can’t possibly keep everyone happy; Trump and Elon Musk having a falling out and resulting blood feud feels especially inevitable.
This may very well lead to a reduction in Trump’s political standing.
And let’s not forget: Trump will re-enter the White House as a lame duck, will never run for office again, and MAGA politics has tended to struggle when he’s not on the ballot. Many two-term presidents, from Lyndon Johnson to Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton to George W. Bush, have had unsuccessful and scandal-plagued second terms, many of which followed landslide victories. There’s a chance Trump’s second term could resemble that of Bush, who decisively won a second term but was practically persona not grata, even in his own party, by the end.
>lost the popular vote last time
>won it this time by making big gains in safe blue states
>doing better than his last winWelcome back George W. Bush https://t.co/ypYB9TqWO6 pic.twitter.com/E4fIT6sGqD
— Irish Patriot 🇮🇪 (@IrishPatri0t) November 6, 2024
American political majorities are never permanent
Trump won this election with a unique coalition that appeared to reshape the electorate. Barack Obama did too, as did LBJ in 1964, Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1992. And those majorities, all of which looked at the time like a new realignment of American politics, were very fleeting, all leading to a presidential victory for the opposite party within a few years.
It can be easy to look at what happened Tuesday and decide that’s just how it’s going to be in politics from now on. But that tends not to be how it works. The party out of power, especially right after elections, looks like they’re dead in the water- until the party in power screws up, and leaves their counterpart an opportunity to get back in the game. This appears likely to happen, simply because it always does- and is especially likely now, considering Trump’s age, and that he’s going to leave the scene in four years no matter what.
Trump is old
Joe Biden’s age and obvious physical decline became such a problem, over the course of his presidency, that it effectively swamped everything else he was trying to accomplish. Trump is 78, will be even older than Biden is now at the end of his term, and is very clearly not nearly as physically sharp as he was even a few years ago.
“He’s aging and it shows” — CNN is openly talking about Trump’s decline pic.twitter.com/0Ve9o5CASr
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 11, 2024
This is, very clearly, going to be an ongoing issue throughout his presidency.
Looking to 2026
While Trump will have a Congressional majority next year, the Democrats will have an opportunity to claw back at it in the 2026 midterms. Midterm elections usually favor the out-party, and the Democrats overperformed expectations in the 2022 midterms. With the GOP likely to have a small House majority, a recapture of the House for the Democrats is very possible.
On to 2028
When Biden stepped away from his re-election campaign in the summer, the Democrats opted to anoint Harris, rather than pursue a primary process or an open convention. In doing so, they opted for party unity over a potentially disruptive contest among the party’s rising stars.
In four years, the Democrats will get that contest, which will likely include several members of the party’s deep bench, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and maybe a dark horse or two who is not even currently on the radar; the name of Rep. Ruben Gallego, just elected to the Senate from Arizona, has been floated.
Today’s the day, Arizona. Let’s do this! pic.twitter.com/JyqeYg2Msl
— Ruben Gallego (@RubenGallego) November 5, 2024
Such an open process, in which the party can determine among themselves the way forward after 2024’s loss, can only be healthy for the party. And the Republicans, if they don’t anoint J.D. Vance, will have an open primary of their own in 2028.
There will not be another insurrection
It’s certainly never great when one’s own party is roundling defeated in a presidential election. But there is one bright side to Tuesday: The election result is not disputed. Neither party will be challenging the result in court, seeking to stop the electoral count, or storming the Capitol. There were serious fear, 24 hours ago, that just that would happen.
While Trump did not grant his opponents a peaceful transfer of power four years ago, he will receive one in January.
Learning from defeat
The Democrats will have a chance to learn from this defeat, and avoid the mistakes of the past. They should, perhaps, not lean so much on Liz Cheney and other never-Trump Republicans. They will have time to come up with better pitches to the demographics that they lost ground with in this cycle. They will perhaps learn that touting of celebrity endorsements is not something that moves the needle whatsoever.
But before the next election, the party will undergo recriminations, soul-searching, and a search for a better way. Such efforts don’t always turn out well, but there’s nowhere to go now but up.
Every Democrat reading this is in despair and fear right now, as they should be. This feeling, however, is not going to last forever, and there are better days ahead.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
