With the midterm elections less than three weeks away, most election pundits expect the Democrats to win back the House of Representatives, while speculation is growing that the Senate could flip as well. How strong are the Democrats’ chances?
According to Newsweek, polls are starting to give the Democrats a better chance, including some Republican-leaning pollsters.
” Four pollsters commonly described as Republican-aligned or right-leaning—Trafalgar Group, InsiderAdvantage, Big Data Poll, and Rasmussen Reports—have found Democrats leading in most of the contests surveyed across nine of the most competitive Senate races,” Newsweek reported.
Democratic candidates, those polls say, have opened up “commanding leads” in Georgia, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, and Democrats are performing well in some red states as well.
New – Senate Projection – Rasmussen polling
🔵 Democrats 53 {Flip}
🔴 Republicans 46 https://t.co/JmpjAllqD1— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 13, 2026
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According to the Trafalgar Group, Democrats are leading “five of the eight most competitive Senate races.” Polls from that outfit show Adam Hamilton leading in Kansas, Troy Jackson leading in Maine, and Abdul El-Sayed leading in Michigan, although all leads are within the margin of error.
InsiderAdvantage, meanwhile, found Democrats “highly competitive across a broad range of Senate battlegrounds, including several states where Republicans entered the cycle defending seats,” the Newsweek report said. “Its recent Senate polling showed Democrats leading in seven of the nine races, with Republicans ahead in South Carolina and Maine tied.”
Senate Map If Rasmussen Polling Holds:
🟦 Democrats 53
🟥 Republicans 46
🟨 Toss up 1 https://t.co/CtVWp8Wdpg— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 11, 2026
That polling outfit also has Democrat Mary Peltola leading in Alaska, Hamilton ahead in Kansas, and El-Sayed ahead in Michigan.
As for the Big Data poll, Democrats “led four competitive Senate contests surveyed by Big Data Poll, providing a second set of favorable results for the party in Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Texas.”
As for Rasmussen Reports, Newsweek said, “Democratic candidates led six of eight competitive Senate contests in recent Rasmussen Reports polling, adding to evidence from three other Republican-leaning pollsters that the party is competitive across several states currently represented by Republicans.”
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