The Democrats are certainly favored in this year’s midterm elections, as they have been all year. But it’s by no means a done deal that they will recapture one or both houses of Congress, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten said in a segment this week.
According to The Daily Beast, Enten “warned Democrats that their lead in national polls is soft, and doesn’t guarantee them a House majority,” despite the continuing low popularity of the president.
“Averaging recent CNBC and Washington Post polling, Enten found that the Democrats are four points up in generic national polls, but that’s not a big enough lead to guarantee success, falling well below where they were polling ahead of House takeovers in 2006 and 2018,” the Beast added.
The expert analyst has warned Democrats that their polling lead is soft, and doesn’t guarantee them a House majority. https://t.co/EnO8tNCBrk
— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) July 20, 2026
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“This is a warning sign, this is an uh-oh, yes Democrats are ahead, but not by anywhere near the margin in prior wave years,” Enten said in the segment. “You might not even get the House at all if, in fact, the House popular vote ends up at four.”
The reason why is the recent redistricting, which has made the electoral map smaller.
Harry Enten: Trump is 19 points below water. That is the worst-ever net approval rating Donald Trump has ever had. Let’s just say that Trump is underwater—I’ll use one of my favorite phrases—like the Little Mermaid. pic.twitter.com/vZA85Vvtwp
— FactPost (@factpostnews) July 20, 2026
In the same segment, however, Enten noted that Trump’s approval ratings are at record lows, once again citing the CNBC and Washington Post polls. In the latter poll, Trump is at -24. Trump is underwater, Enten said, “like The Little Mermaid.”
However, Enten also noted, per the Beast, “despite all of Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the polls, they do not seem to be building an advantage that guarantees them the House or anything close… There is a chunk of 2024 Trump voters who right now aren’t so hot to trot on Donald Trump, but are still very much in the Republican camp, and that for me is the worrisome sign for Democrats.”
Photo courtesy of an X screenshot.
