Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 as impeachment closed in, and his successor, Gerald Ford, soon gave him a full pardon. Now James Carville, the longtime Democratic strategist who helped Bill Clinton win the White House in 1992, thinks Donald Trump could be planning a similar exit, with JD Vance waiting in the pardon seat.
Carville laid out the theory most fully on The Daily Beast Podcast with host Joanna Coles.
His argument starts with the midterms.
Prediction markets currently give Democrats a 76.9% chance of taking the House, a number that has climbed steadily for months. Carville expects that kind of loss to gut Trump’s political standing almost overnight.
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“He’s going to lose so decisively in November,” he said. “His power is going to just seep right out. No one’s going to even care. People really don’t care what he says anymore.”
For Carville, losing the midterms would be only the beginning. The bigger move would come next, with Trump stepping aside and leaving Vance to handle the pardon.
“It’s easy,” Carville said. “He calls in JD Vance, and he says, ‘JD, I’ve decided I’m going to resign, I’m going to go back. You’re going to be the president, but your first act, that I have right here, as soon as you’re sworn in, you’re going to sign a pardon — pardon me for everything imaginable.'”
The idea of using Vance instead rests on one big legal question: can Trump pardon himself?
“Because he can’t take the risk,” he said. “There is some doubt as to the legality of a self-pardon. There’s some doubt. He has to eradicate that doubt.”
And Carville does not think Trump would need to suffer a midterm wipeout for the plan to happen. He has said the same move could come even if Trump manages to serve out his entire term.
“If I were to be wrong and he were to serve his four-year term, he would still resign two days before to be sure he got the pardon, and it was done,” he said. “That guy’s not gonna take any chance with this at all. And… to believe the contrary is just to be an idiot.”
There is plenty in Trump’s legal record to explain why a pardon would matter. He faced 88 criminal counts before returning to office for his second term. As of this July, 34 had ended in convictions, with 52 dismissed.
He has also raised separate ethics concerns, pointing to Wall Street Journal reporting on wealthy donors funding White House construction while potentially benefiting from administration decisions.
“What is more unethical than being President of the United States and charging people for an official deed?” he asked. “It’s right there. You pay if you want to play. You pay.”
The midterms could also give Democrats a chance to challenge Trump’s agenda. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has already laid out what Democrats would try to do with a majority.
“We have to reverse the Medicaid cuts. We should extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. We should restore congressional authority as it relates to tariffs, because the Trump tariffs are making life more expensive for the American people.” He added one more condition. “We should end decisively — if it’s still going on — Donald Trump’s reckless and costly war of choice in the Middle East.”
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
