For sixteen months, congressional Republicans have largely functioned as an extension of whatever Donald Trump posted on Truth Social before breakfast. That dynamic shifted this week in ways that are hard to attribute to coincidence, given that Trump’s approval rating just hit 37% nationally.
Over the span of a single week, Republicans stripped a $1 billion provision for security upgrades – including $220 million for Trump’s new East Wing ballroom – from their reconciliation package.
They also moved closer to backing a resolution that would force Trump to end the war unless he had congressional authorization. In another move, they abruptly canceled a vote on $72 billion in additional funding for the administration’s immigration and deportation agenda.
Three separate retreats in five days. The ballroom, the war and the deportation agenda all hit resistance at the same time.
The Iran war powers vote became the clearest signal.
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House Republicans struggled to find the votes to dismiss legislation that would compel President Trump to withdraw from the war with Iran, pushing planned votes into June.
Republicans could not gather the numbers to kill a Democratic resolution forcing the president to end a war he started.
That is a sentence that would have been implausible six months ago.
Inside the party, the tone began to shift.
“A freaking disaster [is] coming,” one House Republican told MS NOW.
A former Trump administration official was more straightforward: “If the election were held today, we’d lose the Senate and the House.”
A second House Republican said members “feel more confident in criticizing [him] because the poll numbers aren’t as high as they were,” adding that the Republican “Memorial Day wish” would be to exit the Iran war entirely.
“He’s pushing it too far,” another said. “The list goes on and on.”
The $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund added another layer of strain.
The fund, designed to compensate Trump allies who claim victimization by Biden’s DOJ, prompted even Mitch McConnell to call it a “slush fund to pay people who assault cops.”
Nearly two-thirds of voters, 63%, say that going to war with Iran was the wrong decision, including 73% of independents, a group the Republican Party needs heading into November 2026 to hold the House.
One source captured the shift in the clearest terms, telling MS NOW’s Laura Barrón-López and Mychael Schnell: “In many ways I don’t think they [GOP lawmakers] fear the president anymore. Many have realized you can outlive Trump, politically speaking.”
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
