The Economist/YouGov poll has been tracking presidential approval since 2009, and on day 500 of Donald Trump’s second term it delivered a result that sits at the very bottom of that history. In a dataset that spans seventeen years of presidencies, this was the weakest net approval recorded for any president at this stage.
The numbers themselves set the tone.
Net approval stands at -25, with 35% approving and 60% disapproving, a slight improvement from the -26 seen in each of the previous two weeks, which had already marked the worst point in the series. Whether that qualifies as relief is debatable, especially when the economy-specific figures look even sharper, with 29% approval and 63% disapproval producing a net of -34.
During Trump’s first term, economic approval sat at +8, making the swing into negative territory one of the more dramatic shifts in the long-running tracker.
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Policy pressure points appear throughout the data, with the Iran war featuring heavily in respondent attitudes. More than half of Americans describe the conflict as the wrong decision, while two-thirds say Trump has handled negotiations poorly.
Gas prices also feature prominently, with 72% saying they are rising and nearly half describing the increase as significant. One Republican adviser, speaking to Reuters, captured the political irony with the observation: “The toughest thing, too, is that we made gas prices the Achilles’ heel for Biden and now it’s our own.”
What makes this set of numbers more politically sensitive is where the erosion is happening.
Among Trump’s own 2024 voters, approval has slipped from 84% to 76% in just three weeks, a fifteen-point drop within what is normally the most stable voting bloc. Net approval within that group has fallen from +72 to +57, suggesting the pressure is not limited to the broader electorate alone.
The Economist’s midterm projections reflect the weight of those shifts. The outlet notes that if current trends continue, “it will hurt the Republican Party in November’s midterm elections,” assigning Democrats a nine-in-ten chance of taking the House while describing the Senate as a toss-up. For a party holding both chambers, those odds point to a potentially significant political reversal rather than a marginal adjustment.
The geographic picture is equally narrow.
Positive approval now survives in just four states: Wyoming at +18, Idaho at +14, West Virginia at +10, and North Dakota at a thin +1. Every other state sits in negative territory, including Massachusetts at -38, while even Wyoming has shown gradual decline over recent months, reducing what was once a stronger cushion.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
