We have quite a bit of time, more than three years in fact, before the next presidential election. But the nation’s pollsters are already taking an early look at the 2028 presidential election, and who might have a leg up in the first post-Trump election.
According to a recent poll from Emerson College, Vice President JD Vance has a big advantage in the early going of the 2028 race. He is the choice of 46 percent of Republican voters surveyed, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 12 percent, 9% Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 9 percent, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who was running in the Democratic primaries as recently as the 2024 cycle — with 5 percent.
Some other contenders, including Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem (2 percent), former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (2 percent), Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (1 percent), former DOGE head Vivek Ramaswamy (1 percent), and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (1 percent), are also mentioned in the poll. DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy ran for president in 2024, while Gabbard ran, as a Democrat, in 2020.
NATIONAL POLL
Hypothetical 2028 Matchups
JD Vance 44%
Pete Buttigieg 43%
13% undecidedVance 44%
AOC 41%
15% undecidedVance 45%
Gavin Newsom 42%
13% undecidedhttps://t.co/7mjkRItQBq pic.twitter.com/XngOKMX9kw— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) July 25, 2025
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On the Democratic side, the leader in Emerson’s poll is former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 16 percent, followed by former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris with 13 percent and California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 12 percent. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro each have 7 percent, while Senator and former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is at 5 percent. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer each have 3 percent. Buttigieg, Booker, Harris, and Sanders ran for president in 2020, although it would appear unlikely that the 83-year-old Sanders will mount another presidential run.
Emerson also ran a poll featuring head-to-head matchups between the candidates. They show Vance holding a lead, albeit a small one, against Buttigieg (44 percent to 43), Ocasio-Cortez (44 percent to 41) and Newsom (45 percent to 42.) In each of those head-to-head matchups, the number of undecided voters are in the double digits.
So once again, the presidential election remains more than three years away, and a lot is going to happen, in those years and especially during the campaign. We don’t even know that those people are going to be running in 2028.
But based on Emerson’s polling, it would appear JD Vance is the most likely person to succeed Donald Trump as president.
Photo courtesy of the Political Tribune media library.
