In a surprising turn of events, a new WRAL News poll in partnership with SurveyUSA shows Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead of former President Donald Trump in the critical battleground state of North Carolina. Despite expectations that the state would lean towards Trump, given its historical voting patterns, the poll reveals a much closer race, with Harris now holding a narrow lead. This unexpected shift could have a profound impact on the 2024 presidential election, particularly in a state that has long been viewed as essential to Republican electoral success.
The Polling Breakdown
According to the WRAL News poll, Harris has a slight edge over Trump in North Carolina. The race is incredibly tight, with Harris leading by only a small margin, well within the poll’s margin of error. This indicates that while Harris is currently in the lead, the contest is far from decided and remains a statistical tie. The significance of this polling cannot be overstated. North Carolina has been a red state in most presidential elections in recent memory. Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, but the latest data suggests that Harris could potentially flip it in 2024, setting up a high-stakes battle for both candidates.
WRAL broke down the polling HERE:
Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points — a close result in this key battleground state, but one that represents a substantial improvement for Democratic hopes in North Carolina from the last WRAL poll, in March, that found Trump leading by 5 percentage points.
The new poll, released Monday, finds Harris leading Trump 49% to 46%, with 5% undecided and almost no voters saying they plan to back a third-party candidate. And while the result indicates a state that’s still too close to call, Republicans should be concerned about Harris’ showing in North Carolina, said Western Carolina University political scientist Chris Cooper.
WRAL reported that the poll shows “Harris has a slight edge in a neck-and-neck race with Trump,” highlighting just how competitive the state has become. For Democrats, this is a sign that they have a real shot at capturing the state’s electoral votes, which could provide a critical path to victory. Republicans, on the other hand, are likely to intensify their efforts in North Carolina, recognizing that the state may no longer be the reliable GOP stronghold it once was.
The Impact of North Carolina on the Election
North Carolina is a key battleground state with 16 electoral votes. Historically, the state has leaned Republican in presidential elections, with Trump carrying the state in both 2016 and 2020. However, Democrats have been making gains in recent years, and the state is increasingly seen as a potential swing state. A win for Harris in North Carolina could signal a significant shift in the electoral map, making it much harder for Trump to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
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For Trump, losing North Carolina would be a devastating blow to his campaign. The state has been a reliable source of electoral votes for Republicans in recent cycles, and a loss here would force Trump to make up ground in other battleground states. In a close election, every electoral vote matters, and losing North Carolina could drastically alter the outcome.
For Harris and the Democrats, winning North Carolina would be a major coup. The state’s 16 electoral votes, combined with potential wins in other swing states like Georgia and Arizona, could provide a clear path to victory. North Carolina would not only add to the electoral tally but also send a strong signal that the Democratic Party is expanding its appeal in traditionally red states.
The Changing Demographics of North Carolina
Part of the reason for Harris’s unexpected lead in North Carolina can be attributed to the state’s changing demographics. North Carolina has seen an influx of younger, more diverse voters in recent years, many of whom are more aligned with the Democratic Party. Urban areas like Charlotte and Raleigh are growing rapidly, and these cities tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic.
The state’s growing population of college-educated voters, along with its increasing racial diversity, are factors that could benefit Harris in 2024. While Trump’s base of support remains strong among rural, white voters, the state’s urban and suburban areas are becoming more competitive. If Harris can turn out voters in these regions, she stands a good chance of winning the state.
NPR wrote HERE:
North Carolina white voters with degrees also vote more for Democrats than those in Georgia do. In 2020, for example, Trump won college-educated white voters in Georgia by 11 points, but Biden won them by 1 in North Carolina.
The size of the Black population in Georgia — 1 in 3 eligible voters — also generally gives a Democrat a better chance than in North Carolina. That is part of the reason why both senators in Georgia are Democrats, but both in North Carolina are Republicans.
At the same time, Republicans are unlikely to cede North Carolina without a fight. The state’s Republican voters are highly motivated, and Trump continues to enjoy strong support among his base. The 2024 race in North Carolina is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested in the nation, with both parties likely to pour significant resources into the state.
MSNBC Video Analysis
Twelve days ago, MSNBC ran a segment discussing the implications of Kamala Harris’s potential path to victory in key battleground states, including North Carolina. The video emphasized how critical North Carolina is to both parties in the upcoming election. In the segment, political analysts discussed the state’s shifting political landscape, particularly the role of suburban voters who may be turned off by Trump’s rhetoric but are not yet fully committed to Harris.
One key point from the video is how Harris’s campaign has been targeting swing voters, especially suburban women, who played a significant role in the 2020 election. These voters are seen as crucial in tipping the balance in North Carolina. The segment also highlighted Harris’s emphasis on healthcare and economic issues, which resonate with many North Carolinians struggling with rising costs of living. Trump’s focus, on the other hand, has largely been on culture war issues, which appeal to his base but may alienate more moderate voters.
MSNBC analysts concluded that while Trump still has a strong chance of winning the state, Harris’s ability to connect with suburban and urban voters could make North Carolina one of the closest races in the 2024 election.
What’s at Stake
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in recent history, and North Carolina could be the tipping point. For Trump, holding onto North Carolina is essential to his path to victory. Without the state’s 16 electoral votes, his chances of winning the presidency diminish significantly. For Harris, flipping North Carolina would not only boost her electoral tally but also signal a broader shift in American politics, where traditionally red states become battlegrounds.
Both campaigns are likely to ramp up their efforts in North Carolina as the election draws closer. Expect to see more campaign events, more ads, and more focus on the issues that resonate with North Carolina voters. Healthcare, the economy, and education are likely to be key issues in the race, with both candidates trying to sway voters in the state’s growing suburban and urban areas.
In conclusion, the WRAL poll showing Harris leading Trump in North Carolina is a significant development in the 2024 race. While the race remains tight, Harris’s lead suggests that Democrats have a real chance of winning the state. With 16 electoral votes on the line, North Carolina will be one of the most closely watched battlegrounds in the election, and the outcome could have a profound impact on the future of the country.
Featured image via public domain
