After a bruising election night for Republicans, JD Vance had some harsh words about the decisions coming out of Donald Trump’s White House. He blamed the Iran war for costing the party support, but Trump seemed surprisingly happy with what his vice president had to say.
Vance’s assessment was unusually uncomfortable for a president who has spent months defending the military campaign. In a lengthy post on X, the vice president argued that Republicans had lost voters who supported Trump in 2024 because the administration had neglected the issues they cared about.
“The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone … The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote.
He also pointed to the cost of living, inflation and the administration’s relationship with Israel. According to Vance, a pollster had spoken to voters who abandoned the Republicans and asked what would bring them back.
Their four main demands were to “End the [Iran] war,” focus on “cost of living/inflation,” “Put America First” and “Change our relationship to Israel.”
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Vance was particularly pointed about the political price of continuing the conflict. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” he wrote. “Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
The Washington Post reported on Vance’s post-election assessment, which placed responsibility for the Republican losses on the administration’s decisions rather than simply blaming individual candidates.
Trump, however, did not respond with the sort of public disagreement that might have been expected. Asked what he thought of Vance’s comments on Wednesday, the president appeared to approve of the message.
“I know how he feels about it. I think it was fine. Yeah, I thought it was good,” Trump told reporters.
He went further when asked about Vance’s assessment of the election results, saying, “I think it’s largely true.”
But that agreement had an important qualification. Trump was not suggesting that he regretted launching the war or intended to change his approach to Iran.
“If I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again,” he said, maintaining that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon justified the military campaign.
President Donald J. Trump on Vice President JD Vance’s statement:
“I thought it was good.” https://t.co/g1fJ4wk70W
— Vice President JD Vance (@VP) November 4, 2026
ABC News reported on Trump’s response, including his insistence that he would not have handled the war differently.
The exchange was particularly interesting because Vance’s post was not the only sign of dissatisfaction within Trump’s political circle. His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., publicly endorsed the vice president’s assessment, replying to the post: “Every word of this is 💯💯💯.”
Every word of this is 💯💯💯
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) November 4, 2026
That endorsement carries some significance given Trump Jr.’s close friendship with Vance and his support for the vice president’s political rise. Vance also has longstanding ties to conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, who has become increasingly critical of Trump’s decision to wage war against Iran.
The Guardian’s reporting on Vance’s comments also highlighted the political implications of his criticism, particularly as the vice president is seen as a potential Republican presidential contender in 2028.
Trump’s own reaction to the election results had been considerably less accepting before Vance published his assessment. Shortly after the Republican losses became apparent, the president took to Truth Social to argue that his presence on the ballot would have changed the outcome.
“I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” he wrote. He later joked about becoming a political commentator, writing: “I’m going to become a Political Pundit, both good and bad, on the reasons these Candidates won and lost!”
Featured image via X screengrab
