Donald Trump has made it clear that he would like to win the Nobel Peace Prize and has spent much of his second presidency complaining that he hasn’t been seriously considered for the honor.
After spending much of 2026 at war in Iran, it would appear that Trump’s Nobel chances have sunk a bit. But a new report says that a new Nobel contender has emerged- a world leader who Trump is not a huge fan of.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Daily Beast reported, is seen as a favorite for the next Nobel Peace Prize according to at least one prediction market. The report added that after the Iran war, Trump’s Nobel chances have dropped to “near zero.”
Trump’s belligerence toward Canada likely led to Carney’s election as prime minister, and he has spent much of his premiership clashing with Trump over tariffs, as well as the president’s decision to rename Lake Ontario “Lake America” and his stated intention to make Canada into the 51st state in the United States.
Is Carney a Nobel Peace Prize contender? Here’s what one prediction market sayshttps://t.co/b39acf5vtJ
Find out more at https://t.co/l0cc1sDwjo pic.twitter.com/Sjpoo46HOX
— National Newswatch (@natnewswatch) September 28, 2026
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“According to betting and prediction-market site Covers.com, which tracks prices on Kalshi, Carney was trading at a 14 percent implied chance on Monday, ahead of humanitarian agencies such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 13 percent and Doctors Without Borders at 10 percent,” The Daily Beast reported.
“Donald Trump was the favorite to win last year, but given what’s happened this year in Iran we can’t see that happening again,” Covers.com added.
“He may well have decent odds at sports books, but Kalshi gives a more realistic representation of his chance of winning the prize in 2026. That chance is near-zero.”
While Trump will likely never win the Nobel Peace Prize, he’s gotten a couple of consolation prizes. Last year’s winner, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, gifted Trump her own Peace Prize, after which Trump repaid the favor by passing her over following his coup in Venezuelan. And Gianni Infantino, leader of the notoriously corrupt world governing body of soccer, granted Trump the “FIFA Peace Prize.”
Photo courtesy of the Political Tribune media library.
