There is something uniquely American about a president standing in front of the Washington Monument on the nation’s birthday, delivering a lengthy address to a country that, according to the latest polling, would rather he did something else.
As of July 1st, 37% of registered voters approve of Trump’s job performance. 58% do not. That puts his net approval at minus 21, according to Civiqs, which has been tracking responses from over 114,000 registered voters since inauguration day. To put that in perspective, the figure sits lower than Joe Biden’s approval at the same point in his presidency, and lower than Trump’s own numbers during his first term.
The map, when you look at it state by state, tells a story with two very distinct chapters.
Wyoming remains Trump’s firmest ground, with 59% approval and a net rating of plus 24, followed by North Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, and West Virginia in positive territory as well. The loyalty is genuine, though the enthusiasm has clearly cooled since January 2025, when Wyoming was sitting at plus 46 and North Dakota at plus 30.
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Flip to the other side of the map, and the picture changes completely.
Hawaii sits at minus 59, with just 18% of voters approving, and Vermont trails closely at minus 58. Maryland, Massachusetts, California, and Washington all land somewhere between minus 40 and minus 50, a stretch of the country where Trump’s approval is not so much struggling as it is nonexistent. These numbers have barely moved in months, which is either a sign of deep conviction or deep exhaustion.
But that’s not where the real fight is.
Every single battleground state Trump carried in 2024 now shows him underwater, which is the kind of sentence that tends to produce silence in Republican strategy meetings.
Georgia and Michigan are both at minus 20, Pennsylvania sits at minus 18, Nevada is at minus 24, and Florida, once a reliable Republican stronghold and now something considerably more complicated, has drifted to minus 12. These are the states where the midterm map gets decided, and the current trajectory is not pointing in a helpful direction for the GOP.
The demographic breakdown sitting underneath all of those state numbers adds another layer worth examining.
Voters aged 18 to 34 disapprove at 71%, with just 24% approving, a gap that has remained stubbornly wide for months. Among voters 65 and over the margin narrows, but still tips negative at 50% disapproval to 46% approval. Among Black voters, approval sits at 8%, and among postgraduates it reaches only 25%.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
