Two years before anyone casts a vote, the 2028 presidential race already has a defining problem: the candidates both parties are building around are the ones their own voters like the least.
A new AtlasIntel poll of 2,069 Americans conducted earlier this month has made that contradiction visible in a single chart.
Start with the Republicans.
Marco Rubio now leads the GOP primary field at 45.4%, up sharply from 22.6% in December. JD Vance has dropped from 46.7% to 29.6% over the same period. It is, as one analyst put it, essentially a complete flip of positions in five months.
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The man the MAGA movement assumed would inherit Trump’s coalition is now running second to the man Trump once called “a lightweight” during the 2016 primary.
Something has shifted, and it did not happen quietly.
Rubio’s ascent has a paper trail behind it. His role in pushing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power, his consistent public loyalty to Trump, and his handling of Iran diplomacy have built credibility inside the administration that Vance has struggled to match.
A CPAC straw poll in March already reflected the change, showing Rubio at 35%, up from just 3% the year before.
On the Democratic side, the picture is no calmer.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the primary field at 26%, up 10% since December. Pete Buttigieg sits at 22%. Gavin Newsom has fallen from first to third, dropping 14% points to 21%. Kamala Harris trails at 13%.
The candidate Democratic strategists spent years preparing for a potential 2028 run is now polling fourth, while the candidate Republicans spent years turning into a political boogeyman is now polling first.
The favorability numbers are where the poll gets more revealing. Barack Obama leads all potential 2028 figures at 52% favorable, with Michelle Obama close behind at 51%. AOC sits at 49%. JD Vance is at 37%, Newsom at 34%, and Hillary Clinton at 32%.
A clear pattern emerges. The people Americans like most are not running, while the people running are clustered near the bottom of the same chart. In other words, popularity is not the qualification for 2028. It is almost the disqualification.
AOC’s numbers stand out enough to merit their own attention.
Nate Silver has publicly suggested she could become the Democratic nominee, pointing to her 62% favorability rating in a separate Yale poll and what he describes as unusually broad appeal combined with strong support among younger voters.
The broader picture in the same survey adds one final layer.
Democrats lead Republicans by 8% on the generic 2028 ballot and are trusted more on every major issue tested. Yet 79% of respondents also say the Democratic Party is in a leadership crisis.
So the contradiction sits on both sides of the aisle. One party is trusted but still unsure of its leadership. The other is gaining momentum but still struggling with favorability.
Featured image via X screengrab
