For most of the last year, it’s looked as though Republicans were looking at a midterm election bloodbath in November, owing in part to Donald Trump’s low approval ratings.
But after a pair of court rulings, the first one by the U.S. Supreme Court that weakened the Voting Rights Act, and then by the Virginia Supreme Court that struck down the voter-approved new map in that state, it’s looking like less of a sure thing. That’s according to CNN data guru Harry Enten, in a segment that aired Sunday.
“Does that mean it’s a nightmare for the Democrats?” Enten said on CNN, per The Daily Beast. “Well, sort of, but not really.”
Enten added that while the Democrats may not have won the “redistricting wars,” they’re still likely to win the House in November regardless.
CNN’s data guru Harry Enten is warning of a potential gerrymandering “nightmare” for Democrats at November’s midterm elections. https://t.co/OHeE48sQaX
— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) May 11, 2026
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Per the Beast, “the data analyst ran the numbers and said that, under the old lines, the Democrats would need to win the popular vote by less than a point to capture the House. But those numbers change under the new redistricting lines in states including Virginia, Florida, and Tennessee, meaning Democrats would need significantly more votes for victory.”
“Democrats would have to win the national House vote by between 3 and 4 points in order to win House control come November,” Enten said in the Sunday segment. “Now, that’s a significantly wider margin than what we’d expect under the current lines… but it’s 3 to 4 points. It is not anything like 10 points or anything like that. It just makes the road significantly harder for Democrats.”
Their lead now, however, is six points, Enten said.
“So what that essentially means is, yes, Democrats would be favored going into the elections today,” Enten said. “But… they would not be anywhere near as big of a favorite as they were, let’s say, a few weeks ago.”
The guru added that, according to one prediction market, Democrats have a 75 percent chance of winning the House, although that number was 86 percent in April.
Photo courtesy of an X screenshot.
