***DISCLAIMER: This article was first written on August 22, 2024***
A recent poll conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School reveals troubling signs for former President Donald Trump as he faces off against Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 election. While Trump still leads Harris by 4.9 points (49.5% to 44.6%) among likely voters in Texas, a deeper dive into the data suggests that the GOP’s once solid dominance in Texas may be slipping.
Harris’s rise in support since June is notable. Her vote intention increased by over 4%, narrowing the gap with Trump. This upward trajectory seems to have been bolstered by her strong performance with female voters, where she now leads by six points—a stark contrast to Trump’s narrow edge among women in previous polls. Trump maintains a significant lead among men (56% to 38%), but the gender gap has clearly shifted in Harris’s favor.
Moreover, the generational divide paints an intriguing picture: Harris has a commanding lead over Trump among Generation Z voters, with 55% to Trump’s 38%. In contrast, Trump maintains a strong hold on older generations, particularly Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation.
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Ethnically, Trump remains dominant among white voters, while Harris leads significantly among Black voters (77% to Trump’s 17%). The Latino vote is split almost evenly, with Trump leading Harris by just 1%.
The poll also reflects the certainty of voters’ choices. Both Harris and Trump enjoy strong support from their respective bases, with more than 90% of their voters committed. However, Harris has gained ground among undecided voters and former Kennedy supporters, signaling that some of the independents and swing voters may be tilting her way.
While Texas remains a Republican stronghold, Harris’s growing support shows the race is far from over. Texas, long seen as a bastion of GOP dominance, could be on the verge of delivering a closer contest than anticipated, especially with Harris capitalizing on her appeal to women, minorities, and younger voters. Trump’s path to maintaining Texas may not be as certain as it once was, leaving the GOP concerned about their future in the Lone Star State.
As we move closer to November, the race is shaping up to be a defining moment, not just for Texas but for the broader national election narrative.
Featured Image via Political Tribune Gallery
