DISCLAIMER: This article was first published in February 2025
Since he was named Donald Trump’s running mate last year, J.D. Vance has emerged as the presumptive heir, apparent as the leader of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, and possibly even as president. Trump said “no” in an interview earlier this month when asked if he saw Vance as his successor.
More than occasionally, Trump has hinted that he will make an unconstitutional push for a third presidential term. At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) this week, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon declared that “we want Trump in ‘28″ — before giving what appeared to be a fascist salute — and “Trump 2028” stickers and signage were spotted at the conference.
Alas, CPAC on Saturday held its annual straw poll of who the conservative activists present prefer as their presidential standard bearer in the next election. In this year’s poll—in which Trump was not an option—the vice president was the pick.
Stay up-to-date with the latest news!
Subscribe and start recieving our daily emails.
According to a photo of the results, posted by first-term Trump White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer, Vance came in first with a commanding 61 percent of the vote.
@VP @JDVance wins @CPAC 2028 straw poll with 61%@Bannons_WarRoom 12%@RonDeSantis 7 pic.twitter.com/Ked1bCrlFj
— Sean Spicer (@seanspicer) February 22, 2025
Bannon came in second, with 12 percent, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 7 percent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.N. Ambassador-designate Elise Stefanik each had 3 percent, while Donald Trump Jr., DNI Secretary Tulsi Gabbard, and Vivek Ramaswamy had 2 percent. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Sen. Rick Scott, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley each had 1 percent, while Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had zero.
With his win, Vance became the first person other than Trump to win the CPAC straw poll since 2016, when Sen. Ted Cruz won during his primary against Trump. In that February 2016 poll, taken at a time when the conservative movement remained skeptical of Trump, Cruz got 40 percent, followed by then-candidate Rubio with 30 percent and Trump with 15 percent. Cruz was not included in this year’s version of the poll.
The CPAC straw poll is not a good predictor of the GOP Primary except in some years. https://t.co/o9k3TjTmCl pic.twitter.com/NqhMQDhnNh
— DEUSCISION2025 (@DeusXMachina14) February 22, 2025
Trump won the CPAC straw polls every time in between, although in some years when Trump was the presumptive nominee, no such survey was held. Multiple CPAC conferences were held in different venues in 2021 and 2022, when COVID restrictions prevented using the usual venue in National Harbor, Md. DeSantis finished second to Trump in several of those polls.
Featured image via screengrab
