Seventeen months into Donald Trump’s second term, new state-level polling shows a map that follows familiar partisan lines but with noticeably weaker margins almost everywhere. The numbers come from Civiqs’ rolling tracking poll of 111,661 registered voters, representing a verdict the White House has spent considerable effort contesting.
Nationally, Trump receives 37% approval and 58% disapproval, leaving him clearly underwater with a net approval rating of -21.
Support among independents has fallen from roughly four in 10 around the 2024 election to about one-quarter by spring 2026. Among voters aged 18 to 34, just 22% approve while 72% disapprove, women disapprove by a 64-to-31 margin and among postgraduates the split is 25% to 71%. These are not numbers that suggest a narrow gap the right news cycle could close.
The red states are still red, technically, though the shading tells a more complicated picture.
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Wyoming remains Trump’s strongest state at +24, down from +47 on inauguration day. North Dakota sits at +19, South Dakota at +12 and West Virginia at +15. Kentucky, which opened the term at +23, has arrived at exactly 0, wiping out its entire early advantage without crossing into negative territory. Idaho has dropped from +34 to +13. The states losing the most ground are consistently the ones that liked Trump most at the start.
The swing state map is where the midterm implications become most concrete.
Florida sits at -11, down from +9. Ohio has gone from +8 to -13, Nevada from 0 to -21 and Pennsylvania from -3 to -15. Georgia sits at -22, Wisconsin at -14 and Arizona at -11. With Trump underwater across every swing state, even modest shifts in voter sentiment could shape control of Congress in November, and the convergence of state-level erosion, weak national approval and softness among key voter groups suggests Trump enters the summer of 2026 in a more fragile political position than at the start of his second term.
In solidly Democratic territory, the numbers have moved little, though not for lack of opposition. Hawaii posts -58, Vermont -55, Maryland -49, California and Massachusetts -44 each, figures that reflect opposition so deeply entrenched that further deterioration has little statistical room to register.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin tracker records Trump’s net approval at approximately -18.7 as of mid-June, a modest recovery from the second-term low set in late May but still considerably weaker than the comparable point in his first term.
Cook Political Report’s House forecast currently assigns Democrats better than nine-in-ten odds of taking the chamber in November, a figure that tends to prompt significant strategic repositioning among incumbents in marginal seats.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
