Two months ago, Trump promised a swift resolution to the Iran war. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, talks have stalled and Trump has now reportedly told his aides to prepare for an indefinite blockade.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump convened a Situation Room meeting on Monday and concluded that maintaining the blockade was less risky than his two available alternatives, which were resuming bombing or walking away from the conflict entirely.
Neither alternative was appealing.
The blockade, for all its economic consequences, was the option that did not require admitting defeat or escalating a war that is already costing Republicans politically heading into the midterms.
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The sticking point is Iran’s latest proposal, which Trump rejected at the Monday meeting.
Iran’s three-stage plan would first end the fighting, then resolve the Strait of Hormuz shipping dispute, and only then address nuclear issues. The administration wants nuclear concessions from the outset, specifically Iran’s agreement to suspend uranium enrichment for at least 20 years and hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Trump’s response on Truth Social was succinct: “They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They’d better get smart soon!”
Trump told Axios in a phone interview on Wednesday that the blockade is working. “They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” he said. The imagery was vivid. The exit strategy, however, was not addressed.
A source close to the president told Axios separately: “A frozen conflict is the worst thing for Trump politically and economically.” Trump appears to have concluded it is the least worst thing available.
Some US officials are now privately concluding the conflict is most likely to end in a stalemate rather than a comprehensive nuclear deal or a return to active hostilities. Brookings Institution Iran expert Suzanne Maloney cautioned that Tehran may calculate its ability to withstand the blockade outlasts Washington’s willingness to maintain it.
The World Bank forecast energy prices would surge 24% in 2026 to their highest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, if the most acute disruptions caused by the Iran war end only in May. If they do not end in May, the projection gets considerably worse.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has separately warned that “Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, is soon nearing storage capacity, which will force the regime to reduce oil production, resulting in an additional approximately $170 million per day in lost revenue, and causing permanent damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure.”
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
