Sixteen months ago, Donald Trump won a landslide election and returned to the White House with positive net approval ratings across most of the country. A Newsweek analysis of Civiqs tracking data collected from more than 107,000 registered voters now shows net approval has declined in every single state since inauguration day.
The steepest drops are not in places that already opposed him. They are in states that supported him most strongly. Wyoming, his best state, has dropped from a net approval of +47 to +22, a 25-point collapse. Kentucky has gone from +23 to zero.
Nebraska has crossed from positive to negative. Florida, which Trump carried by five points in 2024, has gone from +9 to -12. Ohio from +8 to -11. Nevada from dead even to -20. These are not marginal adjustments but structural shifts in states that were supposed to be his floor.
The mechanics behind the numbers explain why the drops are so large.
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In Wyoming, approval fell 14 points while disapproval rose 11 points simultaneously. That two-way movement compresses net approval far faster than either direction moving alone. Across the country, approval has fallen by an average of 10 to 14 points while disapproval has risen by 8 to 11. The base is not collapsing, but it is no longer dominant.
Nationally, Trump’s net approval rating is negative in 36 states and positive in 14. His overall approval stands at 36% against 59% disapproval.
A CNN poll from May 12 put his overall disapproval at 66%, the highest recorded across both of his terms. The Iran war, which began on February 28, runs through much of the negative movement in the data, alongside gas prices above $4.50 a gallon and rising inflation concerns. It also includes a conflict that has killed American service members and closed the Strait of Hormuz for three months, adding economic pressure that is not abstract for voters in states that were already stretching to support him.
The battleground picture is the one that will define November. Trump’s net approval is below zero in all seven swing states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. He also sits at net negative in Texas, a state he won by 14 points in 2024. Republicans do not have a path to holding the House if the map looks like this in November.
The White House response to the polling data has been consistent. Spokesperson Davis Ingle has repeatedly cited the nearly 80 million Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 as evidence of the administration’s mandate, arguing that the impact of his policies will become clearer over time.
Featured image via Political Tribune Gallery
