Election forecasters rarely hand out compliments for free, so when one of them shifts four races your way in a single week, it’s worth paying attention.
The Cook Political Report did just that this week, moving its gubernatorial ratings in Arizona, Ohio, Maine, and New Mexico toward Democrats, while Republicans were left with a single consolation prize in Oregon. The map, as a result, looks a fair bit less friendly for the GOP than it did a month ago.
Ohio is where things get genuinely interesting. The race there shifted from “lean Republican” to a full “toss-up,” which is forecaster-speak for nobody actually knows what happens next. Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are locked in a dead heat, with one recent poll putting them tied at 47% each, a number close enough to make both campaigns lose sleep.
Even some Republicans seem uneasy about how this one is shaping up, and that discomfort is telling on its own.
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A GOP source told Cook’s Jessica Taylor that Ramaswamy was “the wrong guy to roll the dice with in this political environment,” which is not exactly the ringing endorsement a nominee wants two seasons before Election Day.
Arizona’s got a similar plot, just a lot less suspenseful.
Incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs has built a real financial cushion over Republican challenger Andy Biggs, reportedly outspending him significantly on ads while sitting on far more cash in reserve. That fundraising gap, paired with her approval numbers, was enough to move the race from toss-up to “lean Democrat.”
Maine and New Mexico, on the other hand, barely qualify as suspenseful anymore. Both races slid from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat,” with Cook pointing to comfortable polling leads for nominees Hannah Pingree in Maine and Deb Haaland in New Mexico. At this point, calling either state competitive would be its own kind of political comedy.
Oregon remains the lone item on the Republican side of the ledger, and even that comes with an asterisk attached. The race there slipped from “solid” to merely “likely Democrat,” reflecting sagging approval numbers for incumbent Governor Tina Kotek rather than any surge from her Republican opponent. A shrinking cushion, after all, isn’t the same as an actual lead.
Beyond the individual scorecards, the real stakes are much larger. If Democrats hold their current advantages and pick up Ohio on top of it, they could end up controlling more governorships nationally than Republicans for the first time since 2010. As Cook’s Taylor put it, part of that shift comes from Democrats being unexpectedly competitive “in several red-leaning states, including Ohio and Iowa,” thanks to favorable conditions and strong recruits.
Featured image courtesy of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC)
