According to political analyst David Pakman, the worst of Trump’s second term is still ahead. That assessment, delivered this week, was based on seven weeks of a war that was supposed to take three, a ceasefire that lasted ten days and a blockade that lasted 72 hours.
Pakman, who hosts one of the most widely followed independent political shows in the country, came with a verdict. “I think that it is going to be an absolute disaster,” he said, pointing to a conflict that has blown past every timeline the administration set for itself while the White House continues posting victory declarations on Truth Social.
His first exhibit is the clock.
“Think about where we are right now,” Pakman said. “We had the initial timeline of three to four weeks, that became four to six weeks, we are now in week seven.”
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Each deadline passed without resolution. Each extension came with a new round of presidential announcements claiming total victory. The Strait of Hormuz remained throttled throughout, oil stayed above $100 a barrel and gas prices at the pump settled at $4.10 nationally.
And that’s just the surface.
The broader strategy still lacks a clear endpoint
“We currently, as we stand today, just had, and this changes so quickly, but as of right now we had failed negotiations with Iran led by JD Vance, Donald Trump saying the Strait, which so desperately needed to be open, we are now going to close it, and no clear plan as to what even would mean victory at this point,” Pakman said.
Pakman also raised a question that has been sitting uncomfortably in Washington since February. “Was Trump actually briefed on the risks of this operation?” He did not answer it, and did not need to. Seven weeks of missed projections and shifting objectives had already made the point.
The administration, for its part, has continued to miss its own targets while maintaining a steady stream of confident declarations online. Victory, at least on social media, appears to arrive right on schedule.
Ultimately, it all comes down to November. “Will it go to the summer when the gas prices tend to go up anyway? Will it go into the fall when oil heating becomes more relevant in a lot of the United States? And by the way, there’s an election. Gas prices could be higher in November for the election than they are today,” Pakman asked.
That pressure is building.
Trump will likely declare victory before summer, Pakman predicted, because the alternative carries real electoral risk. “While the administration knows how toxic and disastrous this is for their election chances,” he said, “I think this may very well be affecting the country’s economy in the election.”
Featured image via Facebook screengrab
